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Showing posts with label anthony brown. Show all posts
Showing posts with label anthony brown. Show all posts

Tuesday, February 2, 2016

BREAKING: Delegate Dereck Davis To End Campaign For Congress // Race To Replace Rep. Donna Edwards Down to 3

Multiple sources confirm that Delegate Dereck Davis (D-25) will end his congressional bid this week. Davis' departure comes on the heels of former County Councilmember Ingrid Turner signaling that she too was exiting the race.

Davis, the powerful and popular Chairman of the House of Delegate Economic Matters Committee, was a favorite among many in the Prince George's County establishment, had surrounded himself with seasoned political operatives, and was clearly in the top tier of candidates to replace Rep. Donna Edwards. Davis' departure from the race is a reminder of the challenges of running for higher office from the General Assembly, especially with the primary occurring only days after the end of the legislative session.

With Turner and Davis out, the race for the Fourth Congressional District is essentially down to former Lt. Governor Anthony Brown, former States Attorney Glen Ivey, and Del. Joseline Peña-Melnyk. While it is unknown whether Davis will make an endorsement in the race, Brown may have the most to gain. Brown and Davis both represented the 25th Legislative District in the House, and their regional paths to victory likely were similar. 


Sunday, January 31, 2016

Fourth Quarter Fundraising Reports for Maryland's Open Seat Congressional Races: US Senate, CD4 and CD8

Below Maryland Juice provides a rundown of fundraising numbers for Democratic candidates running the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives in Maryland. We are posting numbers from official FEC reports.

INFORMATION LAST UPDATED
January 31 at 10:15 PM

Summary Table of Current Cash on Hand

US Senate
  • Chris Van Hollen - 
  • Donna Edwards  - 

8th Congressional District
  • Kathleen Matthews - $1,147,930
  • Jamie Raskin - $869,330
  • Kumar Barve - $288,538
  • Will Jawando -  $215,449
  • Ana Sol Gutierrez - $169,483 (includes $94,500 loan)
  • Joel Rubin - $71,743
  • David Anderson - $47,027 (includes $50,000 loan)
  • David Trone - report not required

4th Congressional District
  • Glenn Ivey - $526,667
  • Joseline Pena-Melnyk - $378,396
  • Dereck Davis - $304,934
  • Anthony Brown - $269,443
  • Ingrid Turner - $104,579 (includes $100,000 loan)
  • Warren Christopher - $80,810
  • Alvin Thornton - $7,426 (includes $8,000 loan) 

United States Senate

Donna Edwards 

  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015):
  • Donations Raised Year to Date:
  • Current Cash on Hand:

Chris Van Hollen 

  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015):
  • Donations Raised Year to Date:
  • Current Cash on Hand:

8th Congressional District

David Anderson 

  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $23,250
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $59,432
  • Current Cash on Hand: $47,027

Kumar Barve 

  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $111,748
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $535,620
  • Current Cash on Hand: $288,538

Ana Sol Gutierrez
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $32,671
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $147,068
  • Current Cash on Hand: $169,483

Will Jawando 

  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $81,500
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $352,158
  • Current Cash on Hand: $215,449

Kathleen Matthews 

  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $503,827
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $1,568,860
  • Current Cash on Hand: $1,147,930

Jamie Raskin

  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $374,864
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $1,303,582
  • Current Cash on Hand: $869,330

Joel Rubin
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $159,258
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $159,258
  • Current Cash on Hand: $71,743


4th Congressional District

Anthony Brown 

  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $102,481
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $457,024
  • Current Cash on Hand: $269,443

Warren Christopher
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $45,853
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $138,775
  • Current Cash on Hand: $80,810
Dereck Davis
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $150,776
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $441,112
  • Current Cash on Hand: $304,934

Glenn Ivey 

  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $196,570
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $714,894
  • Current Cash on Hand: $526,667

Joseline Pena-Melnyk 

  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $146,821
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $508,228
  • Current Cash on Hand: $378,396

Alvin Thornton
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $3,174
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $12,624
  • Current Cash on Hand: $7,426
Ingrid Turner
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $11,971
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $70,821
  • Current Cash on Hand: $104,579


Non-Open Seat U.S. House Incumbents

Elijah Cummings
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $191,978
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $561,642
  • Current Cash on Hand: $1,095,970
John Delaney
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $129,511
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $763,690
  • Current Cash on Hand: $319,986
Andy Harris (R)
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $129,998
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $623,680
  • Current Cash on Hand: $647,050
Steny Hoyer
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $299,246
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $1,635,434
  • Current Cash on Hand: $800,467
Dutch Ruppersberger
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $114,750
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $504,113
  • Current Cash on Hand: $1,048,439
John Sarbanes
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $187,485
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $536,676
  • Current Cash on Hand: $949,934

Select GOP Challengers

Amie Hoeber [CD6]
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $23,856
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $108,804
  • Current Cash on Hand: $200,540 (includes $200,000 loan)
Mark Plaster [CD3]
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $47,287
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $154,120
  • Current Cash on Hand: $56,906
Mike Smigiel [CD1]
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $3,355
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: #3,355
  • Current Cash on Hand: $3,912
David Vogt [CD6]
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $10,099
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $57,675
  • Current Cash on Hand: $30,965

Thursday, October 15, 2015

Fundraising Reports for Maryland's US Senate, CD4 & CD8 Races // Van Hollen, Matthews, & Brown Lead in 3rd Quarter

Below Maryland Juice provides a rundown of fundraising numbers for Democratic candidates running the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives in Maryland. We are posting numbers from a range of sources including official FEC reports, press releases, and news articles -- but when all the candidates officially file FEC reports, we will continuously update the data with the submitted information. Note that candidates can also make loans and/or personal contributions to themselves. In future posts, we'll take a deep dive into various aspects of these fundraising reports.

INFORMATION LAST UPDATED
October 19 at 6:06 pm

Summary Table of Current Cash on Hand

US Senate
  • Chris Van Hollen - $4.1 million
  • Donna Edwards  - $368,507

8th Congressional District
  • Kathleen Matthews - $891,716
  • Jamie Raskin - $693,918
  • Kumar Barve - $276,344
  • Will Jawando - $196,481
  • Ana Sol Gutierrez - $151,573 (includes $44,500 loan)
  • David Anderson - $46,000 (includes $30,000 loan)
  • Joel Rubin - report not required (recently filed candidate)

4th Congressional District
  • Glenn Ivey - $391,461
  • Joseline Pena-Melnyk - $304,534
  • Anthony Brown - $252,982
  • Dereck Davis - $206,031
  • Ingrid Turner - $135,234 (includes $120,000 loan)
  • Lisa Ransom - $1,489 (also filed )

United States Senate

Donna Edwards (information via press release)

  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $638,525
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $1.5 million
  • Current Cash on Hand: $368,507

Chris Van Hollen (information via )

  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $950,000
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $5,168,263
  • Current Cash on Hand: $4.1 million

8th Congressional District

David Anderson (information via FEC)

  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $38,107 (includes $13,540 personal donation)
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $38,107 (includes $13,540 personal donation)
  • Current Cash on Hand: $48,099 (includes $30,000 loan)

Kumar Barve (information via )

  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $132,505
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $423,967
  • Current Cash on Hand: $276,344

Ana Sol Gutierrez (information via FEC)
  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $55,817
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $118,227
  • Current Cash on Hand: $151,573 (includes $44,500 loan)

Will Jawando (information via )

  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $162,650
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $275,005
  • Current Cash on Hand: $196,481

Kathleen Matthews (information via press release)

  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $564,221
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $1,065,327
  • Current Cash on Hand: $891,716

Jamie Raskin (information via FEC)

  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $375,199
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $928,718
  • Current Cash on Hand: $693,918

Joel Rubin
  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): report not required (recently filed candidate)
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: report not required (recently filed candidate)
  • Current Cash on Hand: report not required (recently filed candidate)


4th Congressional District

Anthony Brown (information via FEC)

  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $179,924
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $349,043
  • Current Cash on Hand: (Q3 Report Not Filed Yet): $252,982

Dereck Davis (information via FEC)
  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $125,195
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $313,327
  • Current Cash on Hand: $206,031

Glenn Ivey (information via FEC)

  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $127,214
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $518,324
  • Current Cash on Hand: $391,461

Joseline Pena-Melnyk (information via FEC)

  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $139,471
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $364,631
  • Current Cash on Hand: $304,534

Lisa Ransom (information via FEC)
  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $5,645
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $10,115
  • Current Cash on Hand: $1,489

Ingrid Turner (information via FEC)
  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $15,292
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $56,150
  • Current Cash on Hand: $135,234 (includes $120,000 loan)


Non-Open Seat U.S. House Incumbents

Elijah Cummings (information via FEC)
  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $135,474
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $369,664
  • Current Cash on Hand: $980,916

John Delaney (information via FEC)
  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $128,006
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $634,180
  • Current Cash on Hand: $308,881

Andy Harris (R) (information via FEC)
  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $71,484
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $493,682
  • Current Cash on Hand: $574,022

Steny Hoyer (information via FEC)
  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $376,815
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $1,413,456
  • Current Cash on Hand: $649,791

Dutch Ruppersberger (information via FEC)
  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $109,651
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $389,363
  • Current Cash on Hand: $1,054,808

John Sarbanes  (information via FEC)
  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $116,515
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $349,191
  • Current Cash on Hand: $872,213

Select GOP Challengers

Mark Plaster [CD3] (information via FEC)
  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $27,275
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $106,833 (includes $50,100 personal contrib)
  • Current Cash on Hand: $33,065

Mike Smigiel [CD1] (information via FEC)
  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $2,707
  • Donations Raised Year to Date:$12,534
  • Current Cash on Hand: $3,131

David Vogt [CD6] (information via FEC)
  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $34,482
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $50,062
  • Current Cash on Hand: $29,042

Tuesday, October 6, 2015

ALL IN ONE PLACE: A List of Endorsements in Maryland's 8th & 4th Congressional Districts // Do These Endorsements Matter?

Below Maryland Juice provides a round-up of endorsements for each Democrat running in the state's two open-seat races for the U.S. House of Representatives: 1) the 8th Congressional District (currently held by Rep. Chris Van Hollen) and 2) the 4th Congressional District (currently held by Rep. Donna Edwards).

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY ENDORSEMENTS IN MD'S 8TH AND 4TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT - We included endorsements from organizations, current elected officials, and former elected officials. We also included labor unions whose donations appeared on the candidates' campaign finance reports. Candidates not listed below are Democrats who have not announced any endorsements we are aware of. 

If you think we've missed anything, please contact me at .

QUICK TAKE -- DO ENDORSEMENTS MATTER? - Voters often say that political endorsements don't influence their decision making. Celebrities, newspapers and even faith leaders don't do much better. Why? Voters want to see themselves as independent decision makers not overly influenced to cast a ballot because some editorial board or politician told them to. But in a race where issues and ideology don't distinguish the candidates, endorsements might help voters decide (maybe more than they're willing admit). The competition for endorsements is often part of a behind-the-scenes "invisible primary" among the political class, and when there is often limited press coverage of these primaries - endorsements often guarantee (positive) media attention.

With 5 current members of the General Assembly running for Congress -- including 3 committee chairs -- the Annapolis undercurrents are not difficult to see (eg: 10 members of Economic Matters endorsing their Chairman Dereck Davis in the 4th District, House Speaker Mike Busch and Senate President Mike Miller endorsing their respective colleagues). Personal relationships matter too (see eg: Rep. Sarbanes endorsing law school classmate Sen. Raskin, County Executive Baker backing longtime family friend Glenn Ivey, etc).

What are the marquee endorsements? Those that bring with them money, people and attention. That's why labor matters, as do persons with high recognition and approval among the electorate ( and Presidents top that list). Important to note that since this election is in a purely federal cycle without state races on the ballot, many state and local electeds cannot expend their state campaign finance warchests on behalf of their chosen federal candidates.

Don't count anyone out yet, because there's still one thing that could potentially make the biggest difference in today's post-Citizen's United and McCutheon campaign-world: A super PAC.          

8TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT ENDORSEMENTS

Jamie Raskin

National Organizations:
  • Democracy for America
  • International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers PAC (donation)
  • Progressive Change Campaign Committee
  • Progressive Democrats of America
Federal Elected Officials:
  • US House Rep John Conyers (MI)
  • US House Rep John Sarbanes (MD)
  • US House Rep Mark Takano (CA)
  • Former US Senator Birch Bayh (IN)
  • Former US Senator Joseph Tydings (MD)
State Elected Officials:
  • Attorney General Brian Frosh
  • Former Attorney General Doug Gansler
  • State Senate President Mike Miller
  • State Senate Majority Leader Catherine Pugh
  • State Senator John Astle
  • State Senator James Brochin
  • State Senator Ed DeGrange
  • State Senator Nathaniel McFadden
  • State Senator Mac Middleton
  • State Senator Susan Lee
  • State Senator Rich Madaleno
  • State Senator Karen Montgomery
  • State Senator Douglass JJ Peters
  • State Senator Paul Pinsky
  • State Senator Victor Ramirez
  • State Senator Jim Rosapepe
  • State Senator Ron Young
  • State Senator Bobby Zirkin
  • Delegate Sheila Hixson
  • Delegate Karen Lewis Young
  • Delegate David Moon
  • Delegate Will Smith
  • Delegate Jimmy Tarlau
  • Former Delegate Gil Genn
Local Elected Officials:
  • Montgomery County Sheriff Darren Popkin
  • Montgomery County State's Attorney John McCarthy
  • Montgomery County Planning Board Chair Casey Anderson
  • Montgomery County Council President George Leventhal
  • Montgomery County Councilmember Roger Berliner
  • Montgomery County Councilmember Hans Riemer
  • Montgomery County Councilmember Marc Elrich
  • Montgomery County Board of Education President Pat O'Neill
  • Montgomery County Board of Education member Judy Docca
  • Montgomery County Board of Education member Rebecca Smondrowski
  • Former Montgomery County Board of Education President Shirley Brandman
  • Takoma Park Mayor Bruce Williams
  • Takoma Park City Councilmember Kate Stewart
  • Takoma Park City Councilmember Seth Grimes
  • Takoma Park City Councilmember Fred Schultz
  • Takoma Park City Councilmember Terry Seamens
  • Takoma Park City Councilmember Jarrett Smith
  • Kensington Mayor Pete Fosselman
  • Kensington City Councilmember Paul Sexton
  • Rockville City Councilmember Tom Moore
  • Martin's Addition Councilmember Josh Bowers
  • Chevy Chase Village Board of Managers member Minh Le
  • Former Mayor of the Town of Chevy Chase Mier Wolf

Kathleen Matthews


Federal Elected Officials:
  • US House Rep Cheri Bustos (IL)
  • US House Rep Katherine Clark (MA)
  • US House Rep Debbie Dingell (MI)
  • US House Rep Anna Eshoo (CA)
  • US House Rep Lois Frankel (FL)
  • US House Rep Ann McLane Kuster (NH)
  • Former US House Rep Beverly Byron (MD)

Kumar Barve

Organizations:
  • Maryland Medical Political Action Committee
State Elected Officials:
  • Maryland House Speaker Mike Busch
  • House Speaker Pro Tem Adrienne Jones
  • Former Maryland Speaker Cas Taylor
  • Former Maryland Speaker Clayton Mitchell
  • Former Senator Jennie Forehand
  • Delegate Pamela Beidle
  • Delegate Talmadge Branch
  • Delegate David Fraser-Hidalgo
  • Delegate Barbara Frush
  • Delegate Jim Gilchrist
  • Delegate Anne Healey
  • Delegate Marvin Holmes
  • Delegate Carol Krimm
  • Delegate Steven Lafferty
  • Delegate Clarence Lam
  • Delegate Eric Leudtke
  • Delegate Cory McCray
  • Delegate Aruna Miller
  • Delegate Andrew Platt
  • Delegate Shane Robinson
  • Delegate Dana Stein
  • Delegate Joe Vallario
  • Delegate Craig Zucker
  • Former Delegate John Hurson
  • Former Delegate Carol Petzold
  • Former Delegate Galen Claggett
Local Elected Officials:
  • Garrett Park Mayor Peter Benjamin
  • Westminster Councilmember Greg Pecoraro
  • Former Montgomery County Board of Education Member Alan Cheung

Ana Sol Gutierrez

Organizations:
  • Poder PAC


4TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT ENDORSEMENTS

Joseline Pena-Melynk

Organizations:
  • Blue America
  • Congressional Hispanic Caucus BOLD PAC
  • Democracy for America
  • International Association of Heat & Frost Insulators PAC (donation)
  • Poder PAC
  • Progressive Change Campaign Committee
State Elected Officials:
  • State Senator Jim Rosapepe
  • Delegate Ben Barnes
  • Delegate Pam Beidle
  • Delegate Mark Chang
  • Delegate Barbara Frush
  • Delegate Peter Hammen
  • Delegate Anne Healey
  • Delegate Shane Pendergrass
  • Delegate Ted Sophocleus
Local Elected Officials:
  • Prince George’s Councilmember Mary Lehman
  • Prince George’s Councilmember Danielle Glaros
  • Prince George’s Board of Education Member Lupi Grady
  • Anne Arundel Councilmember Andrew Prusky
  • Anne Arundel Board of Education Member Stacy Korbelak
  • Anne Arundel Board of Education Member Julie Hummer
  • Laurel Mayor Craig Moe 
  • Laurel City Council President H. Edward Ricks
  • Laurel City Councilmember Michael Leszcz
  • Laurel City Councilmember Valerie Nicholas
  • Laurel City Councilmember Frederick Smalls
  • Laurel City Councilmember Donna Crary
  • Mount Rainier Councilmember Tracy Loh
  • Former Prince George’s Councilmember Tom Dernoga
  • Former Laurel Mayor Robert DiPietro


Dereck Davis

State Elected Officials:
  • Delegate Angela Angel
  • Delegate Vanessa Atterbeary 
  • Delegate Charley Barkley
  • Delegate Darryl Barnes
  • Delegate Ben Brooks
  • Delegate Ned Carey
  • Delegate Bill Frick
  • Delegate Cheryl Glenn
  • Delegate Adrienne Jones
  • Delegate Ben Kramer
  • Delegate Mary Ann Lisanti
  • Delegate Sally Jameson
  • Delegate Will Smith
  • Delegate Frank Turner
  • Delegate Joe Vallario
  • Delegate Michael Vaughn
  • Delegate Jay Walker
  • Delegate C.T. Wilson
Local Elected Officials:
  • Prince George’s Councilmember Derrick L Davis

Glenn Ivey

Organizations:
  • International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local 26

State Elected Officials:
  • State Senator Victor Ramirez
  • Former Delegate Will Campos

Local Elected Officials:
  • Prince George's County Executive Rushern Baker
  • Brentwood Mayor Rocio Treminio-Lopez

Anthony Brown

Organizations:
  • VoteVets PAC


Once again, if you think we've missed anything, please contact me at .

Saturday, November 8, 2014

JUICE - A Way Forward for MD Democrats: Brian Frosh vs. Anthony Brown and Lessons from Connecticut & Minnesota

A WAY FORWARD FOR MARYLAND DEMOCRATS: Politicos have been chattering about Anthony Brown's loss this week, and everyone seems to have their own theory about how this happened. Was it a a reaction to partisan gridlock in Congress? Was it a canned campaign by the Democratic nominee? Was it a revolt against taxes? Was Maryland just part of the national anti-Obama wave? We'll never know for sure, but there are clear lessons for the future looking at examples both from outside and inside Maryland. Indeed, it seems clear that neither Democrats nor Republicans can take for granted the message from the electorate. To be sure, my side missed the populist tide sweeping through the electorate, but Republicans would be equally foolish to see this as a mandate for conservatism or austerity measures. Below, I make the case for Democrats embracing economic populism (as a contrast to an anti-tax agenda) in the coming years. After all, many of the Assembly Democrats who are closer to Hogan than Brown on tax policy lost this year anyway.

IT'S STILL ABOUT THE MIDDLE & WORKING CLASS: I previously wrote that was that the state party needed to step up its game on economic populism -- especially in a way that counters the GOP's trickle-down economic talking points (eg: the idea that tax cuts for millionaires and corporations will magically create jobs and wealth for ordinary Marylanders). But Larry Hogan's simple anti-tax message clearly had appeal with Maryland voters, because our Democratic Party simply didn't even try to present a progressive or populist vision on economic issues. And when we did, it wasn't really responsive to anyone except the wealthy and industry interests (who are often one and the same). For example, in the last few years Maryland Democrats tried to disarm the Hogan-style message by passing an estate tax cut on inheritances up to $5.9 million and reducing the state's millionaire's tax. I don't begrudge Maryland Democrats for trying to play the anti-tax game, but I think the ineffectiveness of the strategy in fending off Hogan warrants discussion (without even getting into the policy and revenue merits of these cuts).

In an era of a much-talked-about, historic wealth gap, how many ordinary Marylanders will actually benefit from these measures? Are those who declined to vote really in the dark about growing income and wealth inequality, or did they simply think Democrats weren't planning on doing anything different than in the past? The question is not, are you better off today than you were four years ago -- it is, will you be better off four years in the future than you are today if we are in charge. If you have children at the pre-K age, you might've been able to answer yes to this question -- but if you don't....

To be sure, trying to jump on Larry Hogan's broad anti-tax bandwagon didn't work this year. But I think this had less to do with taxes per se, and more to do with a failure by the party to passionately address the policy sins we all know exist that have led to the spiraling gap between the rich and the poor (both in Maryland and nationally). As Roy Meyers, a professor of political science at UMBC, noted in (excerpt below):
ROY MEYERS (UMBC PROFESSOR): "...repeatedly promising 'no new taxes' in this campaign was insufficient protection from the narrative Republicans, and Hogan in particular, have been building over recent years. Much of that narrative was false or misleading, yet many voters bought it. Though Maryland is still one of the richest and most productive states in the nation, the Republicans convinced many that the economy was worse than most other states’. Though even after the tax increases of recent years, when Maryland still has below-average tax rates per individual incomes, many voters came to believe that the tax burden promoted flight of high-income taxpayers (there’s no convincing proof of this)."
Indeed, many Maryland politicos (Democrats included) over the last few years have become cheerleaders for the idea that we're losing millionaires () and that we're losing residents to Virginia (we're not). In fact, The Washington Business Journal recently reported that . So rather than fight trickle-down economics in Maryland, we've largely embraced it as a policy solution for unquantifiable problems like "poor business reputation" or millionaires maybe/potentially/hypothetically leaving the state (some day).

But where I believe Democrats have faltered is on prioritizing relief for the middle-class and working class. During the gubernatorial race, there was always a lingering choice about whether to try and mobilize the base, or whether to try and convert voters on the other side. In many ways, these choices were mutually exclusive. Karl Rove famously chose the former tactic (to great success) in multiple elections. But in some states, it appears that the populist message was the winning one -- and it's not always a partisan message. Larry Hogan ran a populist campaign running against taxes. But in other states, the populist campaign manifested as sick leave and economic justice.

A LESSON FROM OTHER BLUE STATES: CONNECTICUT & MINNESOTA - Many politicos have been looking at Maryland in the same light as elections across the nation, where Republicans won tight races. But a better apples-to-apples comparison would be comparing Maryland to Connecticut (another traditionally Blue state with a tight Governor's race). , and I think he's got some good points (excerpt below):
LUKE BRINKER (VIA SALON.COM): Amid this week’s disastrous Democratic drubbing, Connecticut emerged as one of the few bright spots for Democrats. Facing a formidable challenge from wealthy investor Tom Foley, whom he defeated by less than one percentage point in 2010, Democratic Gov. Dannel Malloy secured another term, fending off Foley 51 to 48 percent....

But Malloy also boasted something many Democrats who lost Tuesday night did not — an actual track record of economic populist accomplishments. Malloy could point to specific policies he’d signed into law — most notably, mandatory paid sick leave and the nation’s first-ever state-level minimum wage increase to $10.10 an hour — that benefited Connecticut families but would be jeopardized if Foley, who opposed those policies, won the governorship....

A late-stage Malloy ad — aired as public polling indicated a tied race — put the issues at the very top. “On Tuesday, you future is on the ballot,” the ad’s narrator began. “What kind of state will Connecticut be? Tom Foley’s made his plans clear. No paid sick days for workers. No to raising the minimum wage....”

Lindsay Farrell, Connecticut director of the Working Families Party, told Salon that the issues resonated with a broad swath of voters.... But, Farrell noted, Malloy signed both paid sick leave and the minimum wage increase into law despite encountering opposition among more moderate Democrats in the state legislature, particularly on the former.... “Things that give people economic security and tackle economic inequality in this country are popular with voters,” [Farrell] added.

Results elsewhere bear this out. Bloomberg Politics’ Dave Weigel observes that while Democratic Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia barely survived after running a “radical centrist” campaign about the importance of slashing the national debt, Minnesota Democratic Sen. Al Franken cruised to a 10-point victory over his GOP opponent after a remarkably economic populist campaign. Earlier this year, most commentators — including this one — would have told you that of the two senators, Warner was almost certain to win by a larger margin....
And so the push for paid sick leave in Maryland begins (again)....


A LESSON FROM WITHIN MARYLAND: BRIAN FROSH VS. ANTHONY BROWN - Indeed, it would be foolish of Maryland Democrats and Republicans to extrapolate lessons for the future only from this year's Governor's race. After all, my suspicion is that Hogan's win is more of a mandate for populism than it is for conservatism. Within Maryland results, comparing the vote totals of Anthony Brown and Democratic nominee for Attorney General Brian Frosh is very instructive. After all, the Frosh race makes it hard to see the rejection of Anthony Brown as a rejection of Democrats (or liberal political ideology more broadly). I think Frosh's race and multiple other races in the state suggest that the message, tactics, and tone of the Brown campaign were more decisive than party label or liberal vs. conservative.

Indeed, Brian Frosh is a clear liberal politician from Montgomery County (representing much-maligned Bethesda, no less). He's also been the target of true hatred and ire from the NRA and gun owners, many of whom blame him for shepherding Maryland's tough new gun regulations through the State Senate. As a Senator, Frosh has also not been afraid to raise taxes, and voted for bills like transgender nondiscrimination that the rightwing base has revolted against. Frosh also opposed the estate tax cut and tax cuts for Lockheed Martin. He's not exactly a Larry Hogan clone, and would be the perfect foil if we were indeed witnessing a wave of anger toward Democrats. But Frosh won big, and that counters the narrative that voters were looking to blindly oust Democrats or liberals. Indeed, in a realignment cycle like we saw this year, several underfunded Republicans defeated better-known, better resourced candidates.

PROGRESSIVE SENATOR FROSH WON WHERE BROWN LOST: Looking at the voting totals below, you can see that progressive lawmaker Brian Frosh beat his Republican opponent by almost a quarter-of-a-million votes, and he did so by winning in places that Anthony Brown failed to carry: Baltimore County, Charles County and Howard County. Frosh even nearly tied his Republican opponent in Kent County.


Brian Frosh Democrat Jeffrey Pritzker Republican
Allegany 5707 12056
Anne Arundel 71548 91789
Baltimore City 108198 17471
Baltimore 132912 108605
Calvert 11330 18009
Caroline 2708 5491
Carroll 16927 40940
Cecil 8065 16127
Charles 26045 17579
Dorchester 3979 5355
Frederick 30799 41319
Garrett 1823 6194
Harford 30289 52859
Howard 54534 41781
Kent 3394 3537
Montgomery 163238 72205
Prince George's 178809 24346
Queen Anne's 5836 11670
St. Mary's 10283 18779
Somerset 2292 3452
Talbot 5496 8045
Washington 11584 23005
Wicomico 9604 13904
Worcester 6430 11031
Totals 901,830 665,549


PROGRESSIVE SENATOR FROSH OUTPOLLED BROWN IN EVERY MARYLAND COUNTY: Even more interesting is that Brian Frosh got more votes than Anthony Brown in every single county in Maryland, netting over 115,000 more votes for Frosh than Brown. Looking at the results below is a depressing vision of what could've been:


Brian Frosh Democrat Anthony Brown Democrat
Allegany 5707 4539
Anne Arundel 71548 55918
Baltimore City 108198 102219
Baltimore 132912 100121
Calvert 11330 9355
Caroline 2708 1900
Carroll 16927 10181
Cecil 8065 5396
Charles 26045 23936
Dorchester 3979 3067
Frederick 30799 27041
Garrett 1823 1588
Harford 30289 19404
Howard 54534 48019
Kent 3394 2568
Montgomery 163238 151593
Prince George's 178809 177993
Queen Anne's 5836 3715
St. Mary's 10283 8030
Somerset 2292 1979
Talbot 5496 4285
Washington 11584 9480
Wicomico 9604 8572
Worcester 6430 5427
Totals 901,830 786,326


OTHER COUNTER-INTUITIVE TEA LEAVES FROM MARYLAND ELECTIONS: Before you start extrapolating that there was something special about Brian Frosh (not that he isn't special), I would point out that rabid anti-tax, pro-business deregulation Republican Blaine Young lost his bid for Frederick County Executive this year to Democrat Jan Gardner -- even as Republicans swept 5 of the 7 County Council seats, and Brown lost big in the county. Moreover, Democrat John Delaney won re-election not just through Montgomery County -- he carried the Frederick portion of his district too. Rep. Elijah Cummings carried the Baltimore and Howard County portions of his district; Rep. John Sarbanes won the Baltimore and Howard County portions of his district, and nearly tied in Anne Arundel; Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger won in the Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Harford, and Howard County portions of his district; and so on....

On the other hand, , who apparently wants to preserve corporate tax loopholes, thinks the Assembly's incoming freshman are anti-business and a "headache," and believes some of Maryland's Democratic incumbents are "wackos." Stay classy!

Wednesday, November 5, 2014

AFTERMATH - So Larry Hogan's Our Governor: What Happened Down-Ballot, What's Next & What About the Purple Line?

Below Maryland Juice provides a few thoughts on last night's wild (and disappointing) election returns:

JUICE #1: WHAT HAPPENED IN MARYLAND'S DOWN-BALLOT RACES? - I have to admit, I wasn't quite expecting Larry Hogan to have a shot at winning the Governor's race (known unforced errors notwithstanding). However, I fully expected that several races down-ballot would be hotly contested in the General Election. After all, Maryland's rapidly growing Democratic electorate is geographically concentrated with some tentacles into counties like Howard & Frederick that are adjacent to Blue hotspots. When political demographics shift, wave years for political parties (like we saw this year, in 2010, and during the Newt Gingrich years) can often eliminate incumbent lawmakers who sit in districts that have become home to the opposing party. This year in Maryland was (unfortunately) no different.
The short summary is this: In the House of Delegates, Democrats are facing a net loss of 7 seats, and in the Senate, Republicans will gain 2 seats. Democrats will still hold a solid majority in both chambers. Blogger David Lublin over at : "The Democrats who lost in the General Assembly are almost all moderate or conservative Democrats.... The Democrats will be more liberal and the Republicans more conservative." Heading into the 2015 legislative session, Democrats will hold 91 seats in the House of Delegates, while Republicans will hold 50. But of the 91 Democratic lawmakers, 26% will represent Montgomery County, 25% will represent Prince George's County, and roughly 18% will represent Baltimore City. That means nearly 69% of the Democratic House Caucus will come from the "Big 3" jurisdictions.

In the State Senate, Democrats will hold 33 seats, with the Republicans holding 14. 24% of the Democrats will be from Montgomery County, 24% will represent Prince George's, and 15% will represent Baltimore City. In the upper chamber, 63% of Democrats will represent the "Big 3" jurisdictions.
Below I've noted some of the noteworthy down-ballot election results from around the state. Though it was a bad night for Democrats, some of the races below are Democratic pick-ups:

STATE SENATE CHANGES (GOP NETS 2 SEATS):
  • D6 (-1 DEM OPEN SEAT): Johnny Ray Salling (GOP) beats Johnny Olszewski Jr (DEM)
  • D29 (-1 DEM): Steve Waugh (GOP) beats incumbent Roy Dyson (DEM)
  • D34 (GOP HOLD OPEN SEAT): Bob Cassilly (GOP) beats Mary-Dulany James (DEM)

HOUSE OF DELEGATES CHANGES (GOP NETS 7 SEATS):
  • D1B (-1 DEM): Jason Buckel (GOP) beats incumbent Kevin Kelly (DEM)
  • D2B (-1 DEM): Brett Wilson (GOP) beats incumbent John Donoghue (DEM)
  • D3A (+1 DEM IN 2 OPEN SEATS): Carol Krimm & Karen Young (ALL DEM) beat Paul Smith & Victoria Wilkins (ALL GOP)
  • D6 (-3 DEM): Bob Long, Robin Grammer & Ric Metzgar (ALL GOP) beat incumbent Mike Weir & 2 Democrats
  • D29A (-1 DEM IN OPEN SEAT): Matt Morgan (GOP) beats Daniel Slade (DEM)
  • D29B (-1 DEM): Deb Ray (GOP) beats incumbent John Bohanan (DEM)
  • D31A (+1 DEM): Ned Carey (DEM) beats Terry Lynn DeGraw (GOP)
  • D34B (-1 DEM IN OPEN SEAT): Susan McComas (GOP) beats Cassandra Beverly (DEM)
  • D35A (LOSS ACCOUNTED FOR IN D34B): Kevin Bailey Hornberger (GOP) beats incumbent David Rudolph (DEM)
  • D38B (-1 DEM): Carl Anderton Jr (GOP) beats incumbent Norm Conway (DEM)
  • D34A (NO CHANGE): Incumbent Glen Glass (GOP) & Mary Ann Lisanti (DEM) win
NOTE ON DEFEATED DEMS: Del. Norm Conway is House Appropriations Chair; Del. David Rudolph is House Economic Matters Vice-Chair; Sen. Roy Dyson is Senate Education, Health & Environmental Vice-Chair. We can expect some shifting of positions due to these losses.


CONGRESS (ALL INCUMBENTS WIN RE-ELECTION): Though every member of Congress in Maryland is headed to re-election, the CD6 race between Rep. John Delaney and Dan Bongino was an interesting one. Here are the final numbers (not including absentee and provisional ballots):
  • John Delaney 89,318
  • Dan Bongino 87,152

ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY EXECUTIVE (GOP HOLD OPEN SEAT)
  • Del. Steve Schuh (GOP) beats George Johnson (DEM)
  • County Council will be 4 GOP to 3 DEM ()

BALTIMORE COUNTY EXECUTIVE (DEM HOLDS SEAT)
  • Incumbent Kevin Kamenetz (DEM) beats George Harman (GOP)
  • County Council will be 3 GOP to 4 DEM

FREDERICK COUNTY EXECUTIVE (DEM WINS FIRST EVER ELECTION)
  • Jan Gardner (DEM) beats Blaine Young (GOP)
  • County Council will be 5 GOP to 2 DEM

HOWARD COUNTY EXECUTIVE (GOP WINS OPEN SEAT)
  • Sen. Allan Kittleman (GOP) beats Courtney Watson (DEM)
  • County Council will be 1 GOP to 4 DEM

BALLOT QUESTIONS
  • MD Question 1 - "Transportation Fund Lock Box" was Approved
  • MD Question 2 - Authorization for County Executive Special Elections was Approved
  • MoCo Question A - Residency Requirement for District Councilmembers was Approved
  • PG Question J - Longer Term Limits for County Officials was Rejected

JUICE #2: WHAT HAPPENS NEXT: 2018 ELECTION TEA LEAVES - Last night Maryland Juice was watching election coverage on News Channel 8. Doug Gansler's running-mate, Jolene Ivey, was on-air talking about the election returns, and it sure sounds like Gansler might run again in 2018. Gansler has also since appeared in post-election coverage criticizing the Brown campaign (see eg: ). The other candidate in the Democratic Gubernatorial Primary, Heather Mizeur closed out the General Election with a stating, "our time will come at some future election." Let's also not forget that Congressman (with his name included) during the primary. in a list of election winners & losers (listed as a winner), with the following statement: "You may have dodged a bullet by avoiding the trap of being Maryland's lieutenant governor, historically a one-way ticket to nowhere.... See you in four years." Lastly, , who also flirted with a gubernatorial bid this cycle: "In an awful year for Democrats, Comptroller Peter Franchot actually increased his margin of victory from 2010. He ran strong where Democrats did well, and he ran strong where they didn't." Last night's election results were utterly disappointing, but I guess we'll at least have something to talk about for four years.


JUICE #3: MOVING FORWARD & THE FUTURE OF THE PURPLE LINE - I don't want to spend too much time talking about the Governor's race, but :


As noted above, I am indeed thinking about how to adjust to the reality of a Hogan administration. Of primary concern are two issues that should not be seen as partisan: 1) funding for severely overcrowded schools in Montgomery County, and 2) funding for transit projects that are near-ready to break ground, like the Purple Line. The transit-focused blog and included some of my thoughts (excerpt below):
GREATER GREATER WASHINGTON: Business groups supported Hogan because of his message of tax cuts. They also have strongly favored the Purple Line. Will they tell Hogan that it's important to them? David Moon, an organizer who once ran the Purple Line Now campaign and was just elected to the House of Delegates from the Silver Spring/Takoma Park area, said, "You're not going to be able to [win Hogan over] from a regional DC-suburban perspective, or a liberal transit versus roads perspective," or the environment (he ran against a stormwater fee calling it a "rain tax"). But if businesses are willing to stand up for infrastructure that will generate economic growth, he said, that is more compelling....
The interesting piece has generated a decent amount of commentary and debate ().


That's all I got for now....

Monday, October 27, 2014

Early Vote Turnout Analysis, Hillary Clinton in MD, Brown vs. Hogan Polls, Raskin vs. Zirkin for JPR Committee Chair & More!

Below Maryland Juice provides a roundup of news and analyses of key races of interest to politicos:

JUICE #1: DUELING POLLS IN THE RACE BETWEEN ANTHONY BROWN VS. LARRY HOGAN - Maryland's top race this cycle is undoubtedly the gubernatorial match-up between Lt. Governor Anthony Brown and former Ehrlich-administration official Larry Hogan. Here is a quick round-up of recent polls in the race. Note: the Gonzalez poll below was commissioned by supporters of Larry Hogan:

  • Anthony Brown (D) - 51%
  • Larry Hogan (R) - 38%


  • Anthony Brown (D) - 49%
  • Larry Hogan (R) - 42%


  • Anthony Brown (D) - 47%
  • Larry Hogan (R) - 38%
  • Shawn Quinn (L) - 4%


  • Anthony Brown (D) - 47%
  • Larry Hogan (R) - 43%
  • Shawn Quinn (L) - 1%

JUICE #2: MARYLAND JUICE EARLY VOTE TURNOUT ANALYSIS // WHO'S BEEN VOTING? - Below Maryland Juice takes a deep dive into early vote turnout data by party, gender, and county -- and we also give breakdowns in all Montgomery County state races, a few swing districts and in key Maryland counties. Early voting is currently underway in Maryland, as voters can cast early ballots until Thursday, October 30, 2014. Polls are open from 10:00 am to 8:00 pm at early vote centers across the state. Who has been voting early in the Free State? Below you can see some of our findings from turnout data for the first three days of early voting (Thursday, Friday & Saturday).

EARLY VOTE TURNOUT BY COUNTY & PARTY: Below we take a look at early vote turnout by raw party advantage and by county turnout. Not surprisingly, Democrats are turning out at an almost 2-1 rate over Republicans, reflecting their statewide registration advantage. As a result, the top raw turnout counties are not surprising (Baltimore, Prince George's, Anne Arundel, Montgomery, etc). But in terms of the % of eligible voters casting ballots, Montgomery County is near the bottom of the state, along with Baltimore City. Though you cannot assume all Democrats will vote for Brown and all Republicans will vote for Hogan, the data reflect mixed news for Democrats. The party can try and coast on its registration advantage, but the low turnout %'s in heavy Democratic counties should be seen as a call to arms. Montgomery County is seriously lagging in % turnout (again, probably owing to the fact that the large numbers of new MoCo voters who registered over the last few years are not turning out at the polls):
2014 Early Vote Turnout by Party (First 3 Days):
  1. Democrats = 62,765
  2. Republicans = 29,533
  3. Independents = 8,275
2010 Early Vote Turnout by Party (First 3 Days):
  1. Democrats = 60,547
  2. Republicans = 26,146
  3. Independents = 7,508
2014 Early Vote Turnout - Top 8 Counties by Raw Turnout (First 3 Days):
  1. Baltimore County = 16,893 (3.25%)
  2. Prince George's = 14,004 (2.58%)
  3. Anne Arundel = 12,930 (3.7%)
  4. Montgomery = 11,271 (1.78%)
  5. Baltimore City = 8,413 (2.25%)
  6. Howard = 7,064 (3.62%)
  7. Harford = 6,301 (3.83%)
  8. Frederick = 3,712 (2.46%)
2014 Early Vote Turnout - All Counties Ranked by % Eligible Turnout (First 3 Days):
  1. Talbot = 1,651 (6.43%)
  2. Queen Anne's = 1,885 (5.68%)
  3. Kent = 719 (5.65%)
  4. Worcester = 1,415 (3.96%)
  5. Harford = 6,301 (3.83%)
  6. Somerset = 486 (3.74%)
  7. Anne Arundel = 12,930 (3.7%)
  8. Howard = 7,064 (3.62%)
  9. Wicomico = 1,859 (3.28%)
  10. Baltimore County = 16,893 (3.25%)
  11. Caroline = 577 (3.14%)
  12. Dorchester = 582 (2.84%)
  13. Calvert = 1,672 (2.79%)
  14. Prince George's = 14,004 (2.58%)
  15. Frederick = 3,712 (2.46%)
  16. Carroll = 2,751 (2.44%)
  17. Cecil = 1,491 (2.41%)
  18. Garrett = 460 (2.38%)
  19. Saint Mary's = 1,466 (2.27%)
  20. Baltimore City = 8,413 (2.25%)
  21. Charles = 2,069 (2.06%)
  22. Montgomery = 11,271 (1.78%)
  23. Washington = 1,279 (1.42%)
  24. Allegany = 587 (1.38%)
EARLY VOTE BY GENDER & PARTY: Below we take a look at the first three days of early vote turnout by gender and party. Statewide, women are turning out in larger numbers than men, a trend which clearly benefits Democrats. Women make up almost 60% of the Democrats early voting electorate, while men are a majority of Republican and Independent early vote turnout:
2014 Early Vote Turnout by Gender (First 3 Days):
  1. Women = 54,759
  2. Men = 46,778
2014 Early Vote Turnout - Democrats by Gender = 62,765:
  1. Democrats Female = 36,787 (58.6%)
  2. Democrats Male = 25,967 (41.1%)
2014 Early Vote Turnout - Republicans by Gender = 29,533 
  1. Republicans Female = 14,078 (47.7%)
  2. Republicans Male = 15,447 (52.3%)
2014 Early Vote Turnout - Independents by Gender = 8,275 
  1. Independents Female = 3,522 (42.6%)
  2. Independents Male = 4,747 (57.4%)
EARLY VOTE TURNOUT BY AGE AND PARTY: Below we take a look at the first three days of early vote turnout, sorted by age and party. The largest block of early voters is age 65+, with almost equal numbers of early voters from the large 45-64 demographic. In every age category, Democrats are turning out in larger numbers than Republicans. But again, you cannot assume that voters are going to vote party-line:
2014 Early Vote Turnout - Ages 18-24 = 2,363
  1. Democrats 18-24 = 1,249
  2. Republicans 18-24 = 736
  3. Independents 18-24 = 349
  4. Libertarians 18-24 = 15
  5. Greens 18-24 = 4
2014 Early Vote Turnout - Ages 25-44 = 10,775 
  1. Democrats 25-44 = 6,170
  2. Republicans 25-44 = 2,992
  3. Independents 25-44 = 1,459
  4. Libertarians 25-44 = 64
  5. Greens 25-44 = 23
2014 Early Vote Turnout - Ages 45-64 = 43,605
  1. Democrats 45-64 = 26,465
  2. Republicans 45-64 = 13,057
  3. Independents 45-64 = 3,668
  4. Libertarians 45-64 = 75
  5. Greens 25-44 = 55
2014 Early Vote Turnout - Ages 65+ = 44,794 
  1. Democrats 65+ = 28,881
  2. Republicans 65+ = 12,748
  3. Independents 65+ = 2,799
  4. Libertarians 65+ = 36
  5. Greens 65+ = 14
EARLY VOTE BY PARTY IN THE TOP 8 TURNOUT COUNTIES: Below we take a look at early vote turnout in the top 8 highest turnout counties. In 7 of 8 of these counties, Democrats are turning out in much higher numbers than Republicans. In Harford County, Republicans have a slight edge of roughly 300 votes over the Democrats. Though you can't quite assume that all Democrats will vote for their County Executive candidates, the county-level turnout may be reassuring news for Democrats in some of the competitive County Exec races. Some of the turnout numbers are tight enough to warrant extra energy from Dems:
Anne Arundel Early Vote Turnout by Party (First 3 Days):
  1. Democrats = 6,169
  2. Republicans = 5,282
  3. Independents = 1,433
Baltimore City Early Vote Turnout by Party (First 3 Days):
  1. Democrats = 7,636
  2. Republicans = 417
  3. Independents = 326
Baltimore County Early Vote Turnout by Party (First 3 Days):
  1. Democrats = 11,259
  2. Republicans = 4,334
  3. Independents = 1,090
Frederick County Early Vote Turnout by Party (First 3 Days):
  1. Democrats = 1,698
  2. Republicans = 1,538
  3. Independents = 460
Harford County Early Vote Turnout by Party (First 3 Days):
  1. Republicans = 2,967
  2. Democrats = 2,657
  3. Independents = 602
Howard County Early Vote Turnout by Party (First 3 Days):
  1. Democrats = 4,167
  2. Republicans = 2,035
  3. Independents = 775
Montgomery County Early Vote Turnout by Party (First 3 Days):
  1. Democrats = 7,909
  2. Republicans = 1,962
  3. Independents = 1,295
Prince George's County Early Vote Turnout by Party (First 3 Days):
  1. Democrats = 12,443
  2. Republicans = 878
  3. Independents = 507
EARLY VOTE TURNOUT IN MONTGOMERY COUNTY DELEGATE RACES: In all 8 of Montgomery County's House of Delegate Districts, Democrats are turning out in far greater numbers than Republicans. My home District 20 has the highest Democratic turnout in MoCo, and here Independents are tied with Republicans for turnout. Meanwhile District 14 has the highest overall turnout (counting all parties):
Maryland House District 14 Early Vote Turnout by Party = 1,953 Total Votes
  1. Democrats = 1,258
  2. Republicans = 472
  3. Independents = 317
  4. Libertarians = 3
  5. Greens = 0
Maryland House District 15 Early Vote Turnout by Party = 1,161 Total Votes 
  1. Democrats = 709
  2. Republicans = 275
  3. Independents = 163
  4. Libertarians = 5
  5. Greens = 1
Maryland House District 16 Early Vote Turnout by Party = 1,092 Total Votes 
  1. Democrats = 796
  2. Republicans = 171
  3. Independents = 119
  4. Libertarians = 2
  5. Greens = 0
Maryland House District 17 Early Vote Turnout by Party = 1,242 Total Votes 
  1. Democrats = 835
  2. Republicans = 234
  3. Independents = 161
  4. Libertarians = 2
  5. Greens = 2
Maryland House District 18 Early Vote Turnout by Party = 1,335 Total Votes 
  1. Democrats = 999
  2. Republicans = 182
  3. Independents = 136
  4. Greens = 6
  5. Libertarians = 0
Maryland House District 19 Early Vote Turnout by Party = 1,676 Total Votes 
  1. Democrats = 1,220
  2. Republicans = 257
  3. Independents = 183
  4. Greens = 4
  5. Libertarians = 3
Maryland House District 20 Early Vote Turnout by Party = 1,741 Total Votes 
  1. Democrats = 1,425
  2. Republicans = 148
  3. Independents = 148
  4. Greens = 7
  5. Libertarians = 3
Maryland House District 39 Early Vote Turnout by Party = 1,070 Total Votes 
  1. Democrats = 666
  2. Republicans = 222
  3. Independents = 170
  4. Libertarians = 3
  5. Greens = 1
EARLY VOTE TURNOUT IN A FEW SWING RACES: Below we provide early vote turnout figures and party breakdowns in a few key races on the November ballot. Democratic turnout from the first three days of early voting looks okay across the board, but there are a couple districts where the party needs to turn up the heat!

Senate District 3 Early Vote Turnout by Party (Ron Young vs. Corey Stottlemyer) 
  1. Democrats = 1,091
  2. Republicans = 719
  3. Independents = 246
Senate District 42 Early Vote Turnout by Party (Jim Brochin vs. Tim Robinson)
  1. Democrats = 1,062
  2. Republicans = 683
  3. Independents = 153
Delegate District 9B Early Vote Turnout by Party (Tom Coale vs. Bob Flanagan) 
  1. Democrats = 742
  2. Republicans = 506
  3. Independents = 158
Delegate District 12 (Eric Ebersole/Terri Hill/Clarence Lam vs. Gordon Bull/Joe Hooe/Rick Martel)
  1. Democrats = 1,773
  2. Republicans = 566
  3. Independents = 220
Delegate District 29B (John Bohanan vs. Deb Rey)
  1. Democrats = 190
  2. Republicans = 158
  3. Independents = 40
Delegate District 30A Early Vote Turnout by Party (Mike Busch/Chuck Ferrar vs. Herb McMillan/Genevieve Lindner)
  1. Democrats = 1,384
  2. Republicans = 839
  3. Independents = 257
Delegate District 38B Early Vote Turnout by Party (Norm Conway vs. Carl Anderton Jr) 
  1. Democrats = 430
  2. Republicans = 388
  3. Independents = 85

JUICE #3: NATIONAL PARTIES NOW SPENDING IN MARYLAND // PLUS: OBAMA, CHRIS CHRISTIE & THE CLINTONS CAMPAIGN IN MD - As we head into the homestretch for Maryland's gubernatorial race, the national Democrats & Republicans are engaging in a proxy battle in the Free State. Here are a few signs of activity from national politicians:
HILLARY CLINTON TO RALLY FOR ANTHONY BROWN THIS THURSDAY: So far Lt. Governor Anthony Brown's campaign has brought President Obama and former President Bill Clinton onto the campaign trail in Maryland. This Thursday, they are continuing the proxy battle with a rally with Hillary Clinton (press release excerpt below). You can RSVP at:

This event is free – supporters will be admitted on a first come, first served basis. Space is limited and supporters must RSVP at www.anthonybrown.com/Oct30, or pick up tickets at a Democratic office listed here: www.anthonybrown.com/offices.

Who: Hillary Rodham Clinton, Lt. Governor Anthony Brown, County Executive Ken Ulman, and the Maryland Democratic Team

What: Early Vote event – Final push before polls close at 8 p.m. (Nearest Early Vote location is the College Park Community Center at 5051 Pierce Avenue, College Park, MD)

When: Thursday, October 30th, Doors open to the public at 2:45 pm

Where: University of Maryland College Park, Ritchie Coliseum, 4533 Rossborough Lane, College 
Hillary Clinton's visit comes on the heels of an Anthony Brown rally with President Obama (see ) and a fundraiser with President Bill Clinton (see ). Meanwhile, Larry Hogan has enlisted New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (see ) to campaign for him in the Free State.

NATIONAL PARTY TV AD WARS: Meanwhile, the Democratic Governor's Association (aka DGA) has now spent at least $1.15 million in deep Blue Maryland to shore up the Brown campaign. (excerpt below):
WASHINGTON POST: The DGA previously spent about $750,000 on three weeks of ads in the Baltimore market that attack Hogan’s record on social issues, including his past opposition to abortion rights.... The latest DGA outlay in the heavily Democratic state will keep ads on the air on Baltimore stations through mid-October. The purchase appears to be roughly $400,000, based on publicly available records and people familiar with the buy....
To counter the DGA, the Republican Governor's Association (aka the RGA) has bought airtime in Maryland. (excerpt below):
BALTIMORE SUN: The RGA's intervention in the race in deep-blue Maryland reflects a growing hope in GOP circles that Hogan can score an upset despite the state's 2-1 Democratic registration advantage. The RGA's chairman, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, campaigned and raised funds for Hogan this week on his second visit to Maryland on Hogan's behalf. lRelated Distortions fly in race for governor POLITICS Distortions fly in race for governor SEE ALL RELATED 8 According to filings with the Federal Communication Commission, the RGA will spend $166,515 to advertise on WJZ-TV. The ad the group released Thursday is a 30-second spot rattling off taxes, fares and other charges that have gone up under Brown and Gov. Martin O'Malley....

JUICE #4: SENATORS RASKIN & ZIRKIN BATTLING FOR CHAIR OF JUDICIAL PROCEEDINGS COMMITTEE - One of the non-election stories politicos are currently following is the battle between State Senators Jamie Raskin & Bobby Zirkin for Chair of the Judicial Proceedings Committee. After all, not all of the hot races this year are electoral battles -- some of them relate to the assignment of leadership posts. This November, State Senator Brian Frosh is all but certain to be elected Maryland's next Attorney General, but Frosh also chairs the Senate's Judicial Proceedings Committee (aka JPR). With his looming departure from that post, Senate President Mike Miller will soon have to choose a replacement. (excerpt below):
JOSH KURTZ VIA CENTER MARYLAND: At first glance – and maybe even at second and third glance – it’s a no-brainer: A Harvard-educated constitutional scholar vs. a guy who advertises his ability to win dog bite cases prominently on his law firm website. Put another way, it’s a choice between a lawyer who wrote a best-selling book about the Supreme Court and a lawmaker who introduced a bill that would have prevented the wife of an Annapolis lobbyist from serving on the Baltimore County school board because the lawmaker didn’t like a natural gas pipeline project in his neighborhood that the lobbyist’s firm was promoting....

By all accounts, the battle is between Montgomery County Sen. Jamie Raskin (D), an American University law professor and constitutional scholar, and Baltimore County Sen. Bobby Zirkin (D), the trial lawyer and pipeline foe. But [Senate President Mike] Miller’s decision isn’t as easy as one might expect given the two contenders’ credentials, because this is not an academic exercise – and the chairmanship of JPR is anything but an academic position. In fact, it’s become a major dilemma for Miller, the longest-serving Senate president on Planet Earth who once held the JPR gavel himself....
WILL MOCO & LIBERALS HAVE A ROLE IN THE STATE SENATE? - But there is much more to the JPR battle than just the resumes of Senators Raskin & Zirkin. The decision has much to do with the trajectory of the chamber, and Montgomery County's role in the future of the State Senate. With the exit of Senator Brian Frosh and the retirement of former Majority Leader Rob Garagiola, Montgomery County may soon be without any Senator in a senior leadership position in the state's upper chamber.

Moreover, with the ever-increasing liberal bent to Maryland's Democratic electorate, the JPR battle foreshadows whether progressives in the State Senate will be given a correspondingly larger voice in the body. On this point, there are some similarities and some differences in voting record between Raskin & Zirkin. Most notably, Zirkin voted against the Dream Act while Raskin supported the bill. The two Senators also disagree on whether landlords should be able to discriminate against tenants based on the form of payment for rent (eg: housing vouchers for veterans and low income residents). Raskin opposes discrimination against form of payment, while Zirkin supports it.

That being said, both Senators voted for marriage equality and both support marijuana legalization. Both Senators also voted against corporate welfare for Lockheed Martin, and Zirkin ultimately joined Raskin in supporting death penalty repeal and transgender non-discrimination. In any case, we will likely not know how this story plays out until after the General Election is concluded.


JUICE #5: LOW PROFILE BALLOT QUESTIONS FACING VOTERS IN NOVEMBER // TRANSPORTATION LOCK BOX, COUNTY EXEC SPECIAL ELECTIONS & MORE - In addition to the state and county races on the ballot this year, there are some fairly interesting (albeit low-profile) ballot questions facing voters. We discuss the two statewide ballot questions and a Montgomery County-specific ballot question below:
QUESTION 1: SHOULD MARYLAND LOCK-BOX ITS TRANSPORTATION FUNDS? - This ballot question asks voters whether state lawmakers should be prohibited from spending transportation dollars on non-transportation budget items. The measure was placed on the ballot by the General Assembly as part of the gas tax negotiations during the last legislative session. The lockbox on the transportation trust fund dollars could be overturned through at 60% vote of the legislature during a fiscal emergency. including the Montgomery County Democratic Central Committee, Progressive Neighbors, The Baltimore Sun, The Gazette, various Chambers of Commerce, the carpenters union and supporters of the Red Line, Purple Line and CCT.
QUESTION 2: SHOULD MARYLAND ALLOW COUNTIES TO FILL COUNTY EXEC VACANCIES THROUGH SPECIAL ELECTIONS? - This ballot question asks voters whether Maryland should authorize counties to fill vacancies in the office of County Executive through special elections instead of appointments. In Montgomery County, for example, a County Exec vacancy would currently be filled through a vote of five members of the County Council. A vote "for" Question 2 is a vote to allow counties to use special elections and is recommended by the Montgomery County Democratic Central Committee and Progressive Neighbors.
MOCO QUESTION A: SHOULD MOCO REQUIRE COUNCILMEMBERS TO LIVE IN THEIR DISTRICT AT THE TIME OF A PRIMARY, GENERAL & VACANCY? - This ballot question asks voters in Montgomery County whether candidates for District-based County Council seats must reside in their district at the time of a Primary Election and General Election or at the time a vacancy occurs. A vote "for" Question A is a vote to require residency and is recommended by the Montgomery County Democratic Central Committee and Progressive Neighbors.

JUICE #6: MONTGOMERY COUNTY APPROVES PUBLIC FINANCING FOR COUNTY RACES STARTING IN THE 2018 CYCLE - One major game-changer to local politics is that Montgomery County Councilmembers recently voted unanimously to adopt a "clean elections" public financing system for county races. (excerpt below):
MONTGOMERY COUNTY COUNCIL: The Montgomery County Council today unanimously enacted Bill 16-14, which will allow candidates for County Council and County Executive to qualify for partial public financing for their campaigns. This is the first measure of its type for County elective offices in the Washington Region and in the State of Maryland.... The bill would establish a Public Election Fund. To qualify for public financing, a candidate would have to:
  • File a Notice of Intent prior to collecting qualifying contributions
  • Establish a publicly funded campaign account
  • Only accept contributions from an individual of between $5 and $150
  • Refuse to accept a contribution from any group or organization, including a political action committee, a corporation, a labor organization or a State or local central action committee of a political party
  • Collect a qualifying number of contributions from County residents: 500 for County Executive candidates, 250 for at-large Council candidates and 125 for district Council candidates
  • Meet qualifying dollar thresholds of $40,000 for County Executive, $20,000 for at-large Councilmember and $10,000 for district CouncilmemberLimits are indexed to inflation
  • Only contributions from County residents are eligible for matching funds
The plan provides strong incentives for candidates to seek out many small individual contributors. Matching public dollars for County Executive candidates would be $6 for each dollar of the first $50 of a qualifying contribution received from a County resident, $4 for each dollar for the second $50 and $2 for each remaining dollar received up to the maximum contribution. Matching dollars for County Council candidates would be $4 for each dollar of the first $50 received from a County resident, $3 for each dollar for the second $50 and $2 for each remaining dollar received up to the maximum contribution.

The maximum limit on public funds per candidate for either the primary election or the general election will be $750,000 for a County Executive candidate, $250,000 for a Council at-large candidate and $125,000 for a district Council candidate. Matching dollars would not be distributed for self/spouse contributions or to candidates running unopposed.
Advocates are hopeful that the "clean elections" push will soon spread to other states and hopefully be adopted for state elections in coming years.

That's it until next time!




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