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Showing posts with label democratic primary. Show all posts
Showing posts with label democratic primary. Show all posts

Sunday, January 31, 2016

Fourth Quarter Fundraising Reports for Maryland's Open Seat Congressional Races: US Senate, CD4 and CD8

Below Maryland Juice provides a rundown of fundraising numbers for Democratic candidates running the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives in Maryland. We are posting numbers from official FEC reports.

INFORMATION LAST UPDATED
January 31 at 10:15 PM

Summary Table of Current Cash on Hand

US Senate
  • Chris Van Hollen - 
  • Donna Edwards  - 

8th Congressional District
  • Kathleen Matthews - $1,147,930
  • Jamie Raskin - $869,330
  • Kumar Barve - $288,538
  • Will Jawando -  $215,449
  • Ana Sol Gutierrez - $169,483 (includes $94,500 loan)
  • Joel Rubin - $71,743
  • David Anderson - $47,027 (includes $50,000 loan)
  • David Trone - report not required

4th Congressional District
  • Glenn Ivey - $526,667
  • Joseline Pena-Melnyk - $378,396
  • Dereck Davis - $304,934
  • Anthony Brown - $269,443
  • Ingrid Turner - $104,579 (includes $100,000 loan)
  • Warren Christopher - $80,810
  • Alvin Thornton - $7,426 (includes $8,000 loan) 

United States Senate

Donna Edwards 

  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015):
  • Donations Raised Year to Date:
  • Current Cash on Hand:

Chris Van Hollen 

  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015):
  • Donations Raised Year to Date:
  • Current Cash on Hand:

8th Congressional District

David Anderson 

  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $23,250
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $59,432
  • Current Cash on Hand: $47,027

Kumar Barve 

  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $111,748
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $535,620
  • Current Cash on Hand: $288,538

Ana Sol Gutierrez
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $32,671
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $147,068
  • Current Cash on Hand: $169,483

Will Jawando 

  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $81,500
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $352,158
  • Current Cash on Hand: $215,449

Kathleen Matthews 

  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $503,827
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $1,568,860
  • Current Cash on Hand: $1,147,930

Jamie Raskin

  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $374,864
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $1,303,582
  • Current Cash on Hand: $869,330

Joel Rubin
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $159,258
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $159,258
  • Current Cash on Hand: $71,743


4th Congressional District

Anthony Brown 

  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $102,481
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $457,024
  • Current Cash on Hand: $269,443

Warren Christopher
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $45,853
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $138,775
  • Current Cash on Hand: $80,810
Dereck Davis
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $150,776
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $441,112
  • Current Cash on Hand: $304,934

Glenn Ivey 

  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $196,570
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $714,894
  • Current Cash on Hand: $526,667

Joseline Pena-Melnyk 

  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $146,821
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $508,228
  • Current Cash on Hand: $378,396

Alvin Thornton
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $3,174
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $12,624
  • Current Cash on Hand: $7,426
Ingrid Turner
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $11,971
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $70,821
  • Current Cash on Hand: $104,579


Non-Open Seat U.S. House Incumbents

Elijah Cummings
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $191,978
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $561,642
  • Current Cash on Hand: $1,095,970
John Delaney
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $129,511
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $763,690
  • Current Cash on Hand: $319,986
Andy Harris (R)
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $129,998
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $623,680
  • Current Cash on Hand: $647,050
Steny Hoyer
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $299,246
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $1,635,434
  • Current Cash on Hand: $800,467
Dutch Ruppersberger
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $114,750
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $504,113
  • Current Cash on Hand: $1,048,439
John Sarbanes
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $187,485
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $536,676
  • Current Cash on Hand: $949,934

Select GOP Challengers

Amie Hoeber [CD6]
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $23,856
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $108,804
  • Current Cash on Hand: $200,540 (includes $200,000 loan)
Mark Plaster [CD3]
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $47,287
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $154,120
  • Current Cash on Hand: $56,906
Mike Smigiel [CD1]
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $3,355
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: #3,355
  • Current Cash on Hand: $3,912
David Vogt [CD6]
  • Donations Raised Q4 (October to December 2015): $10,099
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $57,675
  • Current Cash on Hand: $30,965

Sunday, November 29, 2015

State Senator Jamie Raskin Leads In Internal Poll // First Look at Maryland 8th Congressional District Democratic Primary

The first publicly released poll in 8th Congressional District Democratic primary finds State Senator Jamie Raskin with an early lead over his closest competitor - Kathleen Matthews. GBA Strategies - which polled in Maryland in 2014 - conducted the poll for the Raskin campaign.

We tend to take internal polls with a grain of salt, but still this is our first look at where the race stands as we head into 2016.

TOP LINE: Raskin leads the crowded field with 30% of the vote. The poll surveyed 500 likely Democratic primary voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.4%

Vote
Name ID
Raskin
30
49
Matthews
21
53
Gutierrez
11
42
Barve
5
30
Anderson
3
Jawando
2
22
Rubin
0
Other/Unsure
28


FRONTRUNNERS: The poll seemingly confirms that Raskin and Matthews are the frontrunners in the race. Raskin’s lead isn’t particularly surprising given his longstanding work with and popularity among Montgomery County’s progressive base, many of whom have cast ballots for him before. On the other hand, while it is likely that primary voters may remember and like Matthews from her time as a news anchor, they may not be ready to vote for her until they know  more about this first-time candidate's positions and other relevant experience. This will likely change during the course of the campaign.

The polling memo notes that Raskin posts large leads over Matthews in his home district D20 (+43) and in nearby D18 (+30), but his smaller district-wide lead suggests Matthews is  stronger in Bethesda, Rockville and outside Montgomery County. The polls fails to mention if there is a gender gap (which could be critical for a Matthews victory).

As expected, Matthews' campaign manager's response was :  
MATTHEWS CM ETHAN SUSSLES: This poll shows that a majority of Democratic voters are looking for a fresh approach and Kathleen has a track record of getting things done, putting women and families first, and the international experience we need in these challenging times,
BRINGING UP THE REAR: The second tier of candidates is led by Delegate Ana Sol Gutierrez who has been significantly outraised by Delegate Kumar Barve and Will Jawando - both of whom now trail her significantly in this poll. Gutierrez - who is the only Hispanic candidate in the race - benefits from greater name ID having been in public office for the last quarter century

With five months to go and barely any paid advertising in the race, nearly 1 out of 3 voters remain undecided. The composition of the group is key but unspecified.

You can read the full Raskin polling memo .

Friday, October 30, 2015

A Round-Up of New Endorsements in Maryland's Open-Seat US Senate & House Races: Less Than Six Months Until Primary Day

As we pass the sixth month mark until Maryland's April 26 primary, more endorsements were announced this week in the state's open seat US Senate race and in the open 4th and 8th District Congressional races. We previously published a round-up of all the endorsements in those races, but more have begun pouring in as the races take shape. Maryland Juice's Matt Verghese has a full round-up of updates below:

FIREFIGHTERS ENDORSE VAN HOLLEN FOR SENATE: The Professional Fire Fighters of Maryland - the state association for the International Association of Fire Fighters (IAFF) locals, which represents 10,000 current and retired professional fire fighters, unanimously endorsed Chris Van Hollen for United States Senate. Local affiliates in Baltimore, Prince George's and Montgomery Counties have also endorsed Van Hollen.
PFFM President Mike Rund: Congressman Van Hollen has shown that public safety is and will continue to be a top priority for him. The money that has been secured through federal grants wouldn’t have been possible without Chris’s help. It is for these reasons and many more that that we endorse Chris Van Hollen for United States Senate.
This continues the split in local labor endorsements between Van Hollen and Congresswoman Edwards.


OFFICE EMPLOYEE UNION ENDORSES RASKIN FOR CONGRESS: Office and Professional Employees International Local 2 (OPEIU Local 2), a member of the AFL-CIO, became the second labor union to endorse Senator Jamie Raskin in the 8th Congressional District race. OPEIU Local 2 represents 7,000 workers in the region.
OPEIU Local 2 President Dan Dyer: OPEIU Local 2 is excited to endorse Jamie Raskin, an unwavering supporter of Maryland's working families and the proven progressive leader we need in the 8th District. Senator Raskin’s exemplary record of success in Annapolis shows that he is willing to stare down the powerful interests and stand up for the rights and values of working men and women. Our union is proud to stand with Jamie so he can go to Washington and take on the big-money special interests that are trying to destroy the right to organize and to engage in collective bargaining. We know we have a true partner in Jamie Raskin and we are excited to do everything we can to support his campaign for Congress.

CAMPAIGN FINANCE REFORM SUPER-PAC ENDORSES RASKIN: Raskin was also endorsed by , a pro-campaign finance reform super PAC formed by Democratic Presidential hopeful and Harvard professor Lawrence Lessig, and House Judiciary Committee Vice Chair Delegate Kathleen Dumais (D-15).


EMILY'S LIST COMES OUT FOR MATTHEWS: Kathleen Matthews earned the coveted support of EMILY's List. The well respected and well funded organization that backs pro-choice female candidates, could be one of the most important endorsements in the CD8. The organization's support often brings fundraising assistance, visibility and potentially staff and advertising support.
EMILY’s List President Stephanie Schriock: Kathleen Matthews is a lifelong advocate for women and families and a dynamic leader who will fight for progressive change in Congress. As a news anchor at WJLA-TV, she put a spotlight on issues affecting women and families – jobs, education, health care, and equality in the workplace – and as an executive, she spearheaded efforts to advance women's careers and women-owned businesses around the world. Maryland’s Eighth District has never elected a Democratic woman to Congress, and the EMILY’s List community is thrilled to endorse Kathleen Matthews: a pro-choice leader fighting for Planned Parenthood and deeply committed to helping Maryland working families get a fair shot.
EMILY's List previously endorsed Donna Edwards in the US Senate Race.


SIERRA CLUB ENDORSES PENA-MELYNK & RASKIN FOR CONGRESS: The Sierra Club announced its endorsement of Delegate Joseline Pena-Melnyk in Congressional District 4. The Maryland chapter previously announced its support of Jamie Raskin. No endorsement quote was provided, but the chapter's endorsement release is excerpted below:
Sierra Club: Delegate Joseline Pena-Melnyk has been a staunch supporter of environmental legislation and has worked well with the environmental community in the State Legislature where she represents State District 21. She has a lifetime score of 94% as reported by MD-LCV and she has proved herself to be a fierce fighter for our issues. We know she will be a great representative for District 4.

Monday, October 26, 2015

Baltimore City Councilmember Brandon Scott Hints at Citywide Run // Mayor's Race Getting Crowded: Will He Or Won't He?

Even as Nick Mosby launched his campaign for Mayor on Sunday, Baltimore City Councilmember Brandon Scott hinting at his own aspirations for the top job (emphasis mine):
Dear Baltimore, 
Helping to make our city a better place is all that I have ever wanted to do with my life. In fact, I believe that serving Baltimore is the reason that I exist. 
Your outpouring of support and my expectations of what I believe this city can be, demand that I take my service to the next level. I have heard you and I sincerely appreciate you. 
Baltimore is at its most critical point and needs true leadership that can bring the entire city together, unifying our strength and our voice. The support you have given me, and the belief that I can do, and should do, more shows that without a doubt, you believe that I can lead Baltimore to being the best Baltimore we can be
With your continued support and active participation, I am confident in that belief. Together, we can bring this remarkable city back to its best. In the coming weeks I look forward to hearing from you all as I share my plan for leadership that will invest in, inspire and innovate Baltimore. 
Sincerely,
Councilman Brandon M. Scott
Scott, who turned 30 last year, was the city's second youngest-ever elected Councilman (the record belongs to current Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake) in 2011. Prior to his time on the Council, Scott was community liaison to Northeast Baltimore for the City Council President and then the Mayor.

Despite being a time when a lot of voters want a change - which could favor fresh faces over old hands - an increasingly crowded field could lead to an unexpected dynamic come Election Day.

Wednesday, October 21, 2015

Senator Jamie Raskin Wins Backing of Machinists Union // First Labor Endorsement in Maryland 8th Congressional District Race

Sen. Jamie Raskin picked up the endorsement of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM), the first union to formally weigh in on the Democratic primary to replace Rep. Chris Van Hollen. IAM represents nearly 5,000 workers in Maryland, and over 600,000 active and retired members across North America.

In a statement released by the Raskin campaign, IAM President Tom Buffenbarger said:
This seat is an essential one for labor and Raskin has shown extraordinary leadership in the Maryland General Assembly and that he will take on the tough fights and build the coalitions needed to win big victories for working families. As a distinguished constitutional law professor and civil rights lawyer, Jamie has always fought hard for the rights of unions and working people. As a State Senator, he has been a staunch defender of the right to organize and collectively bargain and he’s been a passionate opponent of union-busting.”

The labor movement needs effective progressive leaders we can count on to do the right thing at a time of big-money corporate politics and right-wing assaults on the living standards of working people. We are proud to stand with Jamie and will do whatever we can with our brothers and sisters in the Labor movement to see that he wins this crucial Democratic primary election on April 26, 2016
IAM earlier this year endorsed Donna Edwards for the U.S. Senate, and Hillary Clinton for President.

IAM is affiliated with the AFL-CIO, who has not endorsed.

Tuesday, October 20, 2015

Nick Mosby Announcement This Sunday // Fresh Face Jumping Into Crowded Field for Baltimore Mayor: Who Else Is Running?

Ending months of speculation, Baltimore City Councilmember Nick Mosby appears ready to jump into the race to become the next Mayor. As reported by , Mosby emailed supporters this morning inviting them to an important announcement taking place Sunday afternoon where they will hear from "the best choice for a better Baltimore." Below is a hard copy invite that has been circulating for a number of weeks:



Mosby has been an active and vocal member of the City Council in his first term, helping pass 'Ban the Box' legislation, being only 1 of 2 Councilmembers to vote against confirming Kevin Davis as police chief, and constantly pressing the flesh in neighborhoods across the City. He and his wife, State's Attorney Marilyn Mosby, gained national attention following the protests and unrest set off by the death of Freddie Gray.

Mosby is a client of well-respected fundraiser Colleen Martin-Lauer. Martin-Lauer has also worked for Mayor Rawlings-Blake and Governor O'Malley (among many, many others). 

With 175 days until early voting starts in Maryland's April Democratic primary, Mosby jumps into a crowded field filled with a number of well-known candidates many of who have previously run for the City's top job. A list of announced and potential candidates is listed below. The winner of the Democratic primary is the heavy favorite to win in November.

Announced
  • Richard Black, accountant
  • Mack Clifton, minister and author
  • Sheila Dixon, former Mayor
  • Mike Maraziti, President of Fells Point Main Street Business Association
  • Catherine Pugh, Senate Majority Leader
  • Carl Stokes, Baltimore City Councilman
  • Calvin Young, former Baltimore City Youth Commissioner

On The Fence
  • Jill Carter, Delegate
  • Nick Mosby, Baltimore City Councilmember
  • Brandon Scott, Baltimore City Councilmember
  • David Warnock, venture capitalist and foundation head
  • Jack Young, Baltimore City Council President

Out
  • Ben Jealous, former NAACP President  
  • Joan Pratt, Baltimore City Comptroller
  • Stephanie Rawlings-Blake, current Mayor
  • Wes Moore, nationally renowned author and TV host/producer

Monday, October 19, 2015

Sierra Club Endorses Jamie Raskin in Maryland's 8th Congressional District Race to Replace Chris Van Hollen

The Sierra Club's Maryland chapter endorsed Sen. Jamie Raskin today, becoming the first environmental organization to endorse in the competitive Democratic primary in the 8th Congressional District. The field also includes Maryland House Environment & Transportation Committee Chairman Kumar Barve. The chapter's endorsement statement as released by the Raskin campaign is quoted below (emphasis mine):
SIERRA CLUB: "Senator Jamie Raskin has an extremely compelling record as a passionate environmentalist in Annapolis and has time and again proven his willingness to stand up to powerful political and economic interests to protect the land, the air, the water, and the people," said Betsy Johnson, Political Chair of the Maryland Sierra Club. "We are proud to support him and believe he will be a great representative for District 8."
While the Sierra Club said they would share their "enthusiastic endorsement with its members" the chapter did not mention how many members they had in CD8 (they have 14,000 in the state), or if their support would lead to PAC expenditures in the race.  In 2014, the chapter endorsed Del. Heather Mizeur in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. 

Thursday, October 15, 2015

Fundraising Reports for Maryland's US Senate, CD4 & CD8 Races // Van Hollen, Matthews, & Brown Lead in 3rd Quarter

Below Maryland Juice provides a rundown of fundraising numbers for Democratic candidates running the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives in Maryland. We are posting numbers from a range of sources including official FEC reports, press releases, and news articles -- but when all the candidates officially file FEC reports, we will continuously update the data with the submitted information. Note that candidates can also make loans and/or personal contributions to themselves. In future posts, we'll take a deep dive into various aspects of these fundraising reports.

INFORMATION LAST UPDATED
October 19 at 6:06 pm

Summary Table of Current Cash on Hand

US Senate
  • Chris Van Hollen - $4.1 million
  • Donna Edwards  - $368,507

8th Congressional District
  • Kathleen Matthews - $891,716
  • Jamie Raskin - $693,918
  • Kumar Barve - $276,344
  • Will Jawando - $196,481
  • Ana Sol Gutierrez - $151,573 (includes $44,500 loan)
  • David Anderson - $46,000 (includes $30,000 loan)
  • Joel Rubin - report not required (recently filed candidate)

4th Congressional District
  • Glenn Ivey - $391,461
  • Joseline Pena-Melnyk - $304,534
  • Anthony Brown - $252,982
  • Dereck Davis - $206,031
  • Ingrid Turner - $135,234 (includes $120,000 loan)
  • Lisa Ransom - $1,489 (also filed )

United States Senate

Donna Edwards (information via press release)

  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $638,525
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $1.5 million
  • Current Cash on Hand: $368,507

Chris Van Hollen (information via )

  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $950,000
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $5,168,263
  • Current Cash on Hand: $4.1 million

8th Congressional District

David Anderson (information via FEC)

  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $38,107 (includes $13,540 personal donation)
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $38,107 (includes $13,540 personal donation)
  • Current Cash on Hand: $48,099 (includes $30,000 loan)

Kumar Barve (information via )

  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $132,505
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $423,967
  • Current Cash on Hand: $276,344

Ana Sol Gutierrez (information via FEC)
  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $55,817
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $118,227
  • Current Cash on Hand: $151,573 (includes $44,500 loan)

Will Jawando (information via )

  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $162,650
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $275,005
  • Current Cash on Hand: $196,481

Kathleen Matthews (information via press release)

  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $564,221
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $1,065,327
  • Current Cash on Hand: $891,716

Jamie Raskin (information via FEC)

  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $375,199
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $928,718
  • Current Cash on Hand: $693,918

Joel Rubin
  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): report not required (recently filed candidate)
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: report not required (recently filed candidate)
  • Current Cash on Hand: report not required (recently filed candidate)


4th Congressional District

Anthony Brown (information via FEC)

  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $179,924
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $349,043
  • Current Cash on Hand: (Q3 Report Not Filed Yet): $252,982

Dereck Davis (information via FEC)
  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $125,195
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $313,327
  • Current Cash on Hand: $206,031

Glenn Ivey (information via FEC)

  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $127,214
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $518,324
  • Current Cash on Hand: $391,461

Joseline Pena-Melnyk (information via FEC)

  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $139,471
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $364,631
  • Current Cash on Hand: $304,534

Lisa Ransom (information via FEC)
  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $5,645
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $10,115
  • Current Cash on Hand: $1,489

Ingrid Turner (information via FEC)
  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $15,292
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $56,150
  • Current Cash on Hand: $135,234 (includes $120,000 loan)


Non-Open Seat U.S. House Incumbents

Elijah Cummings (information via FEC)
  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $135,474
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $369,664
  • Current Cash on Hand: $980,916

John Delaney (information via FEC)
  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $128,006
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $634,180
  • Current Cash on Hand: $308,881

Andy Harris (R) (information via FEC)
  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $71,484
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $493,682
  • Current Cash on Hand: $574,022

Steny Hoyer (information via FEC)
  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $376,815
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $1,413,456
  • Current Cash on Hand: $649,791

Dutch Ruppersberger (information via FEC)
  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $109,651
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $389,363
  • Current Cash on Hand: $1,054,808

John Sarbanes  (information via FEC)
  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $116,515
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $349,191
  • Current Cash on Hand: $872,213

Select GOP Challengers

Mark Plaster [CD3] (information via FEC)
  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $27,275
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $106,833 (includes $50,100 personal contrib)
  • Current Cash on Hand: $33,065

Mike Smigiel [CD1] (information via FEC)
  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $2,707
  • Donations Raised Year to Date:$12,534
  • Current Cash on Hand: $3,131

David Vogt [CD6] (information via FEC)
  • Donations Raised Q3 (July to September 2015): $34,482
  • Donations Raised Year to Date: $50,062
  • Current Cash on Hand: $29,042

Tuesday, October 6, 2015

ALL IN ONE PLACE: A List of Endorsements in Maryland's 8th & 4th Congressional Districts // Do These Endorsements Matter?

Below Maryland Juice provides a round-up of endorsements for each Democrat running in the state's two open-seat races for the U.S. House of Representatives: 1) the 8th Congressional District (currently held by Rep. Chris Van Hollen) and 2) the 4th Congressional District (currently held by Rep. Donna Edwards).

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY ENDORSEMENTS IN MD'S 8TH AND 4TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT - We included endorsements from organizations, current elected officials, and former elected officials. We also included labor unions whose donations appeared on the candidates' campaign finance reports. Candidates not listed below are Democrats who have not announced any endorsements we are aware of. 

If you think we've missed anything, please contact me at .

QUICK TAKE -- DO ENDORSEMENTS MATTER? - Voters often say that political endorsements don't influence their decision making. Celebrities, newspapers and even faith leaders don't do much better. Why? Voters want to see themselves as independent decision makers not overly influenced to cast a ballot because some editorial board or politician told them to. But in a race where issues and ideology don't distinguish the candidates, endorsements might help voters decide (maybe more than they're willing admit). The competition for endorsements is often part of a behind-the-scenes "invisible primary" among the political class, and when there is often limited press coverage of these primaries - endorsements often guarantee (positive) media attention.

With 5 current members of the General Assembly running for Congress -- including 3 committee chairs -- the Annapolis undercurrents are not difficult to see (eg: 10 members of Economic Matters endorsing their Chairman Dereck Davis in the 4th District, House Speaker Mike Busch and Senate President Mike Miller endorsing their respective colleagues). Personal relationships matter too (see eg: Rep. Sarbanes endorsing law school classmate Sen. Raskin, County Executive Baker backing longtime family friend Glenn Ivey, etc).

What are the marquee endorsements? Those that bring with them money, people and attention. That's why labor matters, as do persons with high recognition and approval among the electorate ( and Presidents top that list). Important to note that since this election is in a purely federal cycle without state races on the ballot, many state and local electeds cannot expend their state campaign finance warchests on behalf of their chosen federal candidates.

Don't count anyone out yet, because there's still one thing that could potentially make the biggest difference in today's post-Citizen's United and McCutheon campaign-world: A super PAC.          

8TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT ENDORSEMENTS

Jamie Raskin

National Organizations:
  • Democracy for America
  • International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers PAC (donation)
  • Progressive Change Campaign Committee
  • Progressive Democrats of America
Federal Elected Officials:
  • US House Rep John Conyers (MI)
  • US House Rep John Sarbanes (MD)
  • US House Rep Mark Takano (CA)
  • Former US Senator Birch Bayh (IN)
  • Former US Senator Joseph Tydings (MD)
State Elected Officials:
  • Attorney General Brian Frosh
  • Former Attorney General Doug Gansler
  • State Senate President Mike Miller
  • State Senate Majority Leader Catherine Pugh
  • State Senator John Astle
  • State Senator James Brochin
  • State Senator Ed DeGrange
  • State Senator Nathaniel McFadden
  • State Senator Mac Middleton
  • State Senator Susan Lee
  • State Senator Rich Madaleno
  • State Senator Karen Montgomery
  • State Senator Douglass JJ Peters
  • State Senator Paul Pinsky
  • State Senator Victor Ramirez
  • State Senator Jim Rosapepe
  • State Senator Ron Young
  • State Senator Bobby Zirkin
  • Delegate Sheila Hixson
  • Delegate Karen Lewis Young
  • Delegate David Moon
  • Delegate Will Smith
  • Delegate Jimmy Tarlau
  • Former Delegate Gil Genn
Local Elected Officials:
  • Montgomery County Sheriff Darren Popkin
  • Montgomery County State's Attorney John McCarthy
  • Montgomery County Planning Board Chair Casey Anderson
  • Montgomery County Council President George Leventhal
  • Montgomery County Councilmember Roger Berliner
  • Montgomery County Councilmember Hans Riemer
  • Montgomery County Councilmember Marc Elrich
  • Montgomery County Board of Education President Pat O'Neill
  • Montgomery County Board of Education member Judy Docca
  • Montgomery County Board of Education member Rebecca Smondrowski
  • Former Montgomery County Board of Education President Shirley Brandman
  • Takoma Park Mayor Bruce Williams
  • Takoma Park City Councilmember Kate Stewart
  • Takoma Park City Councilmember Seth Grimes
  • Takoma Park City Councilmember Fred Schultz
  • Takoma Park City Councilmember Terry Seamens
  • Takoma Park City Councilmember Jarrett Smith
  • Kensington Mayor Pete Fosselman
  • Kensington City Councilmember Paul Sexton
  • Rockville City Councilmember Tom Moore
  • Martin's Addition Councilmember Josh Bowers
  • Chevy Chase Village Board of Managers member Minh Le
  • Former Mayor of the Town of Chevy Chase Mier Wolf

Kathleen Matthews


Federal Elected Officials:
  • US House Rep Cheri Bustos (IL)
  • US House Rep Katherine Clark (MA)
  • US House Rep Debbie Dingell (MI)
  • US House Rep Anna Eshoo (CA)
  • US House Rep Lois Frankel (FL)
  • US House Rep Ann McLane Kuster (NH)
  • Former US House Rep Beverly Byron (MD)

Kumar Barve

Organizations:
  • Maryland Medical Political Action Committee
State Elected Officials:
  • Maryland House Speaker Mike Busch
  • House Speaker Pro Tem Adrienne Jones
  • Former Maryland Speaker Cas Taylor
  • Former Maryland Speaker Clayton Mitchell
  • Former Senator Jennie Forehand
  • Delegate Pamela Beidle
  • Delegate Talmadge Branch
  • Delegate David Fraser-Hidalgo
  • Delegate Barbara Frush
  • Delegate Jim Gilchrist
  • Delegate Anne Healey
  • Delegate Marvin Holmes
  • Delegate Carol Krimm
  • Delegate Steven Lafferty
  • Delegate Clarence Lam
  • Delegate Eric Leudtke
  • Delegate Cory McCray
  • Delegate Aruna Miller
  • Delegate Andrew Platt
  • Delegate Shane Robinson
  • Delegate Dana Stein
  • Delegate Joe Vallario
  • Delegate Craig Zucker
  • Former Delegate John Hurson
  • Former Delegate Carol Petzold
  • Former Delegate Galen Claggett
Local Elected Officials:
  • Garrett Park Mayor Peter Benjamin
  • Westminster Councilmember Greg Pecoraro
  • Former Montgomery County Board of Education Member Alan Cheung

Ana Sol Gutierrez

Organizations:
  • Poder PAC


4TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT ENDORSEMENTS

Joseline Pena-Melynk

Organizations:
  • Blue America
  • Congressional Hispanic Caucus BOLD PAC
  • Democracy for America
  • International Association of Heat & Frost Insulators PAC (donation)
  • Poder PAC
  • Progressive Change Campaign Committee
State Elected Officials:
  • State Senator Jim Rosapepe
  • Delegate Ben Barnes
  • Delegate Pam Beidle
  • Delegate Mark Chang
  • Delegate Barbara Frush
  • Delegate Peter Hammen
  • Delegate Anne Healey
  • Delegate Shane Pendergrass
  • Delegate Ted Sophocleus
Local Elected Officials:
  • Prince George’s Councilmember Mary Lehman
  • Prince George’s Councilmember Danielle Glaros
  • Prince George’s Board of Education Member Lupi Grady
  • Anne Arundel Councilmember Andrew Prusky
  • Anne Arundel Board of Education Member Stacy Korbelak
  • Anne Arundel Board of Education Member Julie Hummer
  • Laurel Mayor Craig Moe 
  • Laurel City Council President H. Edward Ricks
  • Laurel City Councilmember Michael Leszcz
  • Laurel City Councilmember Valerie Nicholas
  • Laurel City Councilmember Frederick Smalls
  • Laurel City Councilmember Donna Crary
  • Mount Rainier Councilmember Tracy Loh
  • Former Prince George’s Councilmember Tom Dernoga
  • Former Laurel Mayor Robert DiPietro


Dereck Davis

State Elected Officials:
  • Delegate Angela Angel
  • Delegate Vanessa Atterbeary 
  • Delegate Charley Barkley
  • Delegate Darryl Barnes
  • Delegate Ben Brooks
  • Delegate Ned Carey
  • Delegate Bill Frick
  • Delegate Cheryl Glenn
  • Delegate Adrienne Jones
  • Delegate Ben Kramer
  • Delegate Mary Ann Lisanti
  • Delegate Sally Jameson
  • Delegate Will Smith
  • Delegate Frank Turner
  • Delegate Joe Vallario
  • Delegate Michael Vaughn
  • Delegate Jay Walker
  • Delegate C.T. Wilson
Local Elected Officials:
  • Prince George’s Councilmember Derrick L Davis

Glenn Ivey

Organizations:
  • International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local 26

State Elected Officials:
  • State Senator Victor Ramirez
  • Former Delegate Will Campos

Local Elected Officials:
  • Prince George's County Executive Rushern Baker
  • Brentwood Mayor Rocio Treminio-Lopez

Anthony Brown

Organizations:
  • VoteVets PAC


Once again, if you think we've missed anything, please contact me at .

POLL: MD Supports Obama, Hogan, Pot & Immigrants (1 Is Not Like The Others) // PLUS: Marylanders on Presidential Race

Below Maryland Juice provides highlights from a new Goucher Poll on the Presidential race, Governor Larry Hogan and a few policy debates. You can see the summary data below. A few quick items of interest:
  1. Slim majorities of Marylanders approve of Larry Hogan & Barack Obama's jobs, but many residents don't yet have an opinion on Hogan.
  2. Governor Hogan's issue ratings are lower, and he receives his lowest marks on education -- the most important issues facing the state and the only issue where Democrats disapprove 
  3. Marylanders support marijuana legalization, and a super-majority of residents support a path to citizenship for undocumented residents.
  4. Marylanders disapprove of the job Congress is doing by a whopping 83%.
  5. It's early in the Presidential race, but Hillary Clinton tops the polls for Maryland Democrats & Martin O'Malley is scraping the bottom in his own state

Who Would Maryland Democrats Vote for in Presidential Primary?
  • Hillary Clinton: 43%
  • Joe Biden: 23%
  • Bernie Sanders: 17%
  • Martin O'Malley: 2%

Who Do Maryland Democrats Think Will Win Nomination?
  • Hillary Clinton: 54%
  • Joe Biden: 14%
  • Bernie Sanders: 8%

Marylanders' Approval of Governor Hogan's Job as Governor:
  • Approve: 58%
  • Disapprove: 18%
  • Don't Know: 23%

Marylanders' Approval of Governor Hogan's Handling of Issues (ranked by importance):

Approve Disapprove
Public education 40 33 +7
Taxes 51 29 +22
Economic growth 52 21 +31
Job creation 42 28 +14
Crime 43 32 +11
Transportation 50 29 +21
Environment 43 27 +16


Marylanders' Approval of President Obama's Job as President:
  • Approve: 53%
  • Disapprove: 38%
  • Don't Know: 7%

Marylanders' Approval of Congress' Job:
  • Disapprove: 83%
  • Approve: 9%
  • Don't Know: 7%

Marylanders on Marijuana Legalization:
  • Support Legalization: 52%
  • Oppose Legalization: 42%

Marylanders on Who Should Decide Marijuana Policy:
  • States Should Decide: 64%
  • Federal Government Should Decide: 31%

Marylanders on Redistricting:
  • Prefer Independent Commission: 73%
  • Prefer Redistricting by Electeds: 21%

Marylanders on Starting School After Labor Day:
  • Support Starting After Labor Day: 72%
  • Oppose Starting After Labor Day: 19%

Marylanders on Undocumented Immigrants:
  • Allow Them to Stay In Jobs With Path to Citizenship: 62%
  • Make Them Leave Jobs & the USA: 20%
  • Allow Them to Stay Temporarly In Jobs Without Path to Citizenship: 13%

Tuesday, August 12, 2014

TURNOUT ANALYSIS: What's Really Going On? // Maryland Juice Dissects Voter Turnout in the June 2014 Primary Elections

UPDATEWhen I first went live with the post below, I didn't have complete numbers of independent voters in each Maryland county. We've now updated the post with these figures (Hat-tip to Maryland Reporter's Len Lazarick for pointing us in the right direction), along with an explanation of how counties without nonpartisan primaries have inflated turnout percentages. I've also added some information on counties where independent voters are outpacing Republicans. Scroll down for these updates below.

THE FUTURE OF MARYLAND JUICE: Alrighty folks, after months of absence, Maryland Juice is back in action! Before I kick-off a lengthy article about voter turnout in Maryland, I thought I'd take a second to discuss some changes that this blog will be pursuing in the coming months.

In case you haven't heard, I won my Democratic Primary election for the House of Delegates, and that means that by the time the legislative session starts in January 2015, I'll have to step back from my writing duties. But not to worry -- over the course of the next few months, I hope to introduce a new set of writers who will keep the Juice torch and information pipeline burning into the future. In 2015, I  may still write an article here or there, but likely not with the vigor and frequency you've become accustomed to (for various obvious reasons). In any case, keep your eyes open as we roll out new Juicers in 2014! Now onto my first article in over three months....

MARYLAND JUICE 2014 PRIMARY ELECTION TURNOUT ANALYSIS - Numerous political pundits have fretted about Maryland's declining voter turnout, especially in Democratic strongholds like Montgomery County. (excerpt below):
WASHINGTON POST: There’s been much opining among Montgomery’s elected officials about the anemic primary turnout last month, when just 16 percent of registered voters came to the polls. They cited, among other factors, the inconvenience of the new June 24 election date, the lack of urgent issues, and a less-than compelling primary race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination at the top of the ballot....
Turque's article was triggered by (excerpt below):
CENTER MARYLAND: At presidential election time, voter turnout in Montgomery County is pretty decent: Almost three-quarters of enrolled voters showed up at the polls on Election Day 2012 to choose between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney....  But when it comes to acting locally, when it comes to selecting their leaders at the state and county levels, Montgomery County residents fail miserably.

In the recent statewide primary, just 16 percent of registered voters in Montgomery County bothered to vote. Sixteen percent!.... That’s lower voter turnout than in Garrett County (27 percent), where cousins marry, or in Somerset County (24 percent), where the raging issue is chicken waste, or in Baltimore city (22 percent), where they’re selling drugs on every street corner, or in Prince George’s County (18 percent), where every public official has a palm extended.....
But to accurately build a solution to the problem of "low turnout," it helps to understand what's really going on.  Indeed, rushed analyses have led some to hastily conclude that recent voting reforms like early voting were "unsuccessful" and that we are in some sort of existential crisis in Maryland with respect to civic engagement. However, many variables impacting voter turnout (eg: demographic changes, resident turnover, and the national mood) are out of state and local policymakers' control. Below are a few points to consider about turnout trends in Maryland and Montgomery County.

RAW DEMOCRATIC PARTY ELECTION DAY TURNOUT BY COUNTY: First, not all voters are the same. Turnout in Maryland varied wildly depending on your party registration, and all is not what it seems. In terms of raw Democratic Party turnout, simply more Democrats from Montgomery County voted at the polls on election day than Democrats from any other county:

COUNTY PARTY PRIMARY TURNOUT
Montgomery DEM 68,179
Prince George's DEM 64,982
Baltimore County DEM 59,980
Baltimore City DEM 51,730
Anne Arundel DEM 24,655
Howard DEM 19,193
Charles DEM 12,314
Harford DEM 11,795
Frederick DEM 11,201
Carroll DEM 6,306
Calvert DEM 4,451
Washington DEM 4,433
Saint Mary's DEM 4,023
Cecil DEM 3,508
Wicomico DEM 3,349
Allegany DEM 2,748
Queen Anne's DEM 2,303
Worcester DEM 2,173
Dorchester DEM 1,952
Talbot DEM 1,888
Kent DEM 1,299
Caroline DEM 1,018
Somerset DEM 919
Garrett DEM 790

If you include early voters, Montgomery County was second place in Maryland for raw Democratic turnout - Prince George's was first, Baltimore County was third, and Baltimore City was fourth.

% OF ELIGIBLE DEMOCRATIC TURNOUT BY PARTY - One caveat to MoCo's large Democratic turnout should be noted. Even though more MoCo Dems turned out than Dems around the state, Montgomery County's turnout ranking does indeed drop when looking at the percentage of eligible Democrats who participated (as opposed to the absolute number of Democrats who voted).

But even still, in terms of the percentage of Democrats turning out for the primary election, Montgomery County was in a respectable 8th place out of 24 counties (including early voters). Of the large jurisdictions, only Baltimore County Democrats turned out at a rate higher than Montgomery. Prince George's was in 14th place, and Baltimore City was in 17th place:

COUNTY PARTY TURNOUT_TOTAL
Kent DEM 30.22%
Queen Anne's DEM 28.68%
Howard DEM 27.77%
Talbot DEM 26.94%
Baltimore County DEM 26.51%
Charles DEM 26.18%
Frederick DEM 25.05%
Montgomery DEM 23.90%
Harford DEM 23.77%
Carroll DEM 23.55%
Calvert DEM 23.08%
Dorchester DEM 22.90%
Anne Arundel DEM 22.85%
Baltimore City DEM 22.75%
Garrett DEM 20.79%
Allegany DEM 19.90%
Prince George's DEM 19.46%
Cecil DEM 19.02%
Saint Mary's DEM 18.96%
Worcester DEM 18.49%
Caroline DEM 18.44%
Somerset DEM 17.70%
Wicomico DEM 16.82%
Washington DEM 15.80%


MOCO'S POPULATION SURGE DISTORTS ITS TURNOUT PERCENTAGES: In other words, MoCo's sheer size of population means that we have among the most Democrats who vote in Maryland, but we also have a large number of MoCo Democrats who do not vote, thereby bringing down Montgomery County's turnout percentages. Why might this be?

where he delved into some of these turnout dynamics. One of the facts he pointed out is that Montgomery County has had a huge surge in Democratic voter registrations over the last 14 years. Based on his graph below, MoCo had about 230,000 Democrats in 2000 compared with about 355,000 in 2014:



NUMBER OF MOCO DEMOCRATS VOTING BASICALLY UNCHANGED IN OVER 2 DECADES - MoCo Democrats have basically voted in equal numbers over the last couple decades, even while our turnout rate has dropped. How can that be? Some historical Democratic turnout numbers provided by Jonathan Shurberg provide some insight.

Here is one telling comparison. In 1990, roughly 86,000 MoCo Democrats voted out of 195,000. In 2014, roughly 84,000 MoCo Democrats voted. So the raw turnout is almost the same, but today there are 354,000 Democrats on the rolls in Montgomery County.

Montgomery County Democratic Turnout (Gubernatorial Primary Years)
  • 1990: 86,167 turnout out of 195,523 registered Dems (44.07%)
  • 1994: 89,452 turnout out of 217,007 registered Dems (41.22%)
  • 1998: 75,485 turnout out of 227,863 registered Dems (33.13%)
  • 2002: 110,518 turnout out of 246,779 registered Dems (44.78%)
  • 2006: 108,337 turnout out of 271,008 registered Dems (39.98%)
  • 2010: 83,827 turnout out of 321,759 registered Dems (26.05%)
  • 2014: 84,622 turnout out of 354,078 registered Dems (23.90%)
It is worth noting that the two election cycles with unusually high turnout for MoCo Democrats both occurred during the Bush-Cheney-Rumsfeld era (2002-2006). Extrapolate what you will from that data point.

A PROBLEM FOR THE NEW MONTGOMERY COUNTY DEMOCRATIC CENTRAL COMMITTEE - What all of this tells me is that as MoCo's population has surged over the last couple decades, we have likely failed to engage all of the new Democratic registrants that have chosen to reside here.  MoCo's Democratic turnout stayed the same over 24 years even though we added over 150,000 new Democrats to the voter rolls (almost twice as many as vote in Primaries).

Indeed, the vast majority of candidates seeking office in Montgomery County (and everywhere else) spend most of their resources contacting voters with a demonstrated history of voting in Democratic Primaries (aka the decisive elections). As a result, save for the occasional nonprofit voter mobilization drive, there is really nobody trying to pump primary turnout by engaging new registrants and less likely voters in primaries. This seems like a challenge for MoCo's new Democratic Central Committee (MCDCC) to tackle. After all, we are living in a new world in Maryland politics, where literally zero Republicans hold elected office in Montgomery County. It seems sensible that the MCDCC should shift its activities to meet the evolving needs of our county's politics.


SO WHY DOES MOCO HAVE THE OVERALL LOWEST VOTER TURNOUT RATE IN MARYLAND? - Okay, so now that we've got the Democratic turnout analysis out of the way, it still remains true that MoCo had terrible turnout when looking at voters from all parties. When you look at turnout figures from voters of all parties and unaffiliated voters, Montgomery County had the lowest turnout percentage in all of Maryland but we still had the second highest number of actual voters in the state this year. See these tables of overall voter turnout from all parties below:

MARYLAND COUNTIES - % OF ELIGIBLE VOTER TURNOUT  (ALL PARTIES)
  1. Talbot - 35.22%
  2. Kent - 30.60%
  3. Dorchester - 29.00% 
  4. Queen Anne's - 28.33%
  5. Garrett - 26.62%
  6. Baltimore County - 24.68% 
  7. Carroll - 24.53%
  8. Somerset - 24.43%
  9. Anne Arundel - 24.25%
  10. Caroline - 24.19%
  11. Cecil - 23.60%
  12. Frederick - 23.34%
  13. Baltimore City - 21.65%
  14. Charles - 21.47%
  15. Harford - 21.26%
  16. Wicomico - 20.24%
  17. Worcester - 20.21%
  18. Allegany - 19.95%
  19. Calvert - 19.24%
  20. Prince George's - 18.00%
  21. Saint Mary's - 16.77%
  22. Washington - 16.54%
  23. Montgomery - 16.34%

MARYLAND COUNTIES - RAW VOTER TURNOUT  (ALL PARTIES)
  1. Baltimore County - 105,171
  2. Montgomery - 103,000
  3. Prince George's - 91,782
  4. Baltimore City - 70,508
  5. Anne Arundel - 65,396
  6. Howard - 38,946
  7. Frederick - 34,872
  8. Harford - 33,773
  9. Carroll - 28,049
  10. Charles - 21,441
  11. Washington - 14,765
  12. Calvert - 11,571
  13. Cecil - 11,258
  14. Saint Mary's - 10,773
  15. Wicomico - 9,495
  16. Queen Anne's - 9,297
  17. Allegany - 8,460
  18. Talbot - 7,714
  19. Worcester - 6,424
  20. Dorchester - 5,138
  21. Garrett - 5,102
  22. Caroline - 3,625
  23. Kent - 3,257
  24. Somerset - 2,803

UPDATED: UNAFFILIATED VOTERS DRIVE DOWN TOTAL TURNOUT PERCENTAGES - Maryland Juice would point readers to some fairly obvious facts that may explain why MoCo had overall turnout of 16%, even while MoCo Democrats turned out at nearly 24%. First, Montgomery County now has 147,000 voters who are not registered with any party. Since Maryland Democrats and Republicans have closed primaries (meaning only registered party members can vote), independent voters have very little reason to turnout for primary elections. Indeed, in MoCo only 2.59% of unaffiliated voters participated in the June 2014 primary election.

Moreover, as Maryland Reporter's Len Lazarick pointed out to me, multiple counties have no races where independents are eligible to vote in primaries. Montgomery County, for example, has nonpartisan school board races, while other counties do not. As a result, counties without nonpartisan races will appear to have higher voter turnout percentages than the rest (where anemic turnout from independents drags down the countywide participation rates). The counties without nonpartisan primaries are: Anne Arundel, Baltimore City, Baltimore County, Caroline, Cecil, Dorchester, Kent, Somerset, and Wicomico.

What's more, MoCo has a much larger number of independent voters than many other Democratic strongholds, according to the Board of Elections stats as of May 2014. Indeed, there are now more MoCo independents (147,904) than Republicans (122,349). Below you can see the numbers of :

MARYLAND REGISTERED INDEPENDENTS BY COUNTY
  1. Montgomery - 147,904
  2. Baltimore County - 83,015
  3. Anne Arundel - 74,718
  4. Prince George's - 60,039
  5. Baltimore City - 46,313
  6. Howard - 43,623
  7. Frederick - 33,625
  8. Harford - 30,505
  9. Carroll - 21,560
  10. Washington - 17,854
  11. Charles - 16,399
  12. Cecil - 13,249
  13. Saint Mary's - 12,767
  14. Calvert - 12,012
  15. Wicomico - 10,342
  16. Worcester - 6,545
  17. Allegany - 6,428
  18. Queen Anne's - 5,906
  19. Talbot - 4,451
  20. Caroline - 3,427
  21. Dorchester - 2,715
  22. Garrett - 2,311
  23. Kent - 1,918
  24. Somerset - 1,718
It should be obvious that if Montgomery County has significantly more independent voters than other counties, and these voters cannot vote in most races in primary elections, these voters will not turnout (as demonstrated by their 2.59% turnout rate). This clearly drags down MoCo's statewide ranking for voter turnout.


VOTER TURNOUT AND REGISTRATION DECLINES SPELL TROUBLE FOR THE MARYLAND GOP - But more importantly, these numbers raise the question about who these independent voters are. Are they disaffected Republicans (aka would-be moderate Republicans who have no home in today's Republican Party)? It is stunning that indies outnumber the GOP in Montgomery County, but then again the era of moderate Republican officials like Connie Morella is now long-gone, mirroring a national trend of partisan realignment.

That the Maryland GOP cannot energize its voters in the vote-rich Democratic strongholds is not a theory, it is fact. Look at the percentage of Maryland Republicans who voted in the June Primaries:

MARYLAND REPUBLICAN TURNOUT BY COUNTY

County Party Turnout
Talbot REP 44.06%
Dorchester REP 37.76%
Queen Anne's REP 37.46%
Somerset REP 34.00%
Garrett REP 33.53%
Carroll REP 32.80%
Frederick REP 31.84%
Kent REP 31.09%
Caroline REP 29.43%
Cecil REP 27.93%
Harford REP 26.15%
Anne Arundel REP 25.92%
Allegany REP 25.57%
Wicomico REP 24.50%
Worcester REP 24.46%
Calvert REP 23.51%
Washington REP 23.46%
Saint Mary's REP 21.93%
Baltimore County REP 20.55%
Charles REP 20.43%
Howard REP 19.22%
Montgomery REP 11.74%
Prince George's REP 11.23%
Baltimore City REP 11.00%

UPDATED: THE MARYLAND GOP IS A REGIONAL PARTY - In places like Montgomery, Prince George's and Baltimore City, barely 1 in 10 registered Republicans decided to participate in contested Republican Primary Elections. Furthermore, in all three of those jurisdictions, independents outnumber Republicans:
  • Montgomery - 147,904 independents vs. 122,349 Republican
  • Baltimore City - 46,313 independents vs. 30,325 Republicans
  • Prince George's - 60,039 independents vs. 43,636 Republicans
Interestingly, in democratic-trending Howard County, independents are beginning to approach the same strength as the GOP. This does not bode well for the strength of the Republican electorate in the long-term:
  • Howard - 46,623 independents vs. 56,696 Republicans
Given what a large share of votes these counties represent, it seems clear that the Maryland GOP continues on the path of becoming a regional party. But these anemic GOP turnout levels are making us all look bad, since they bring down the overall turnout percentages for our counties.

The obvious solution for the Maryland GOP is to hold open primaries and allow independents to vote -- especially since indies now outnumber MoCo Republicans. But I'm not holding my breath for that.


PRIMARY TURNOUT IS DECLINING NATIONALLY - In the meantime, I would add just one more piece of data for folks to consider. And that is that the hand-wringing over low voter turnout is nothing unique to Maryland. It is happening nationally.  across the nation (courtesy of the Center for the Study of the American Electorate):



So take a deep breath, folks. There is much more going on with voter turnout both nationally, regionally, and locally than has really been discussed in many of the news articles I've read recently. I'll be back with a JuiceBlender before too long.  Thanks for sticking around!




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