Showing posts with label presidential primary. Show all posts
Showing posts with label presidential primary. Show all posts

Sunday, February 21, 2016

What the Presidential Race Says About the Future of Maryland Politics // Through the Lens of Hillary Clinton vs. Bernie Sanders

GUEST POST - By Delegate David Moon

This year's presidential primaries have been taking place in the midst of the Annapolis legislative session. As a result, I've been far more focused on Maryland politics than the presidential race. But I've finally started tuning in to the national horserace, and I'm noticing some fascinating data points that Maryland politicos might want to consider. Indeed, without making any commentary or predictions on the presidential race itself, my thesis for Maryland is that the battle for the White House shows the impact of a recession-era (and growing millenial) electorate finally registering. Here are five emerging trends to note:

1) AMERICA'S DEMOCRATIC ELECTORATE IS NOW FIRMLY LIBERAL - I've noticed the historic wealth gap routinely discussed in the media, but we hadn't really seen the effects of this on Democrats nationally, in quite the same way the Tea Party has tilted the Republicans. It appears that is beginning to change. This clip from stands out: "Among the entrance poll numbers that help explain how Sanders became a serious threat to Clinton: 70% of Nevada's caucusgoers identified themselves as liberal. That's up from the even split in 2008 between liberals and those who called themselves moderate or conservatives. The movement mirrors the results in Iowa and New Hampshire, and make clear that the party's leftward drift is here to stay."
  • MY TAKEAWAY: It is a good time for Democrats to speak out forcefully on justice issues, and to do so with credibility. Doing so isn't a guarantee of victory in a 2018 General Election, but it seems harder for us to generate turnout from the base in Maryland, if we aren't speaking to our party's increasingly liberal instincts. At the same time, Maryland's would-be Democratic governors will have to find a way to address this "party-base" sentiment to win the nomination in 2018.

2) ESTABLISHMENT POLITICIANS ARE GOING OUT OF STYLE (THANKS TO INDEPENDENTS) - Bernie Sanders crushed Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire (where Independents can vote in either party's primary), but only came close to a tie in Nevada (where only registered Democrats can vote in the caucuses). Granted, Nevada has same-day voter registration, thereby allowing people to change parties on caucus day, but confirms Sanders' commanding lead over Clinton among these voters: he won over 70% of Nevada's Independent-minded caucus participants. Indeed, unaffiliated voters are growing at a faster rate than Democrats around the nation, including in places like Maryland. But the challenges this can pose for state Democrats are evident from this single data-point in : "If former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg jumps into the race as a third party candidate against Sanders and Donald Trump or Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, Bloomberg would hurt Sanders more than either Republican." You heard that right, a bloc of voters would prefer either Independent socialist Bernie Sanders or Independent billionaire businessman Michael Bloomberg to today's Republican candidates. This is a puzzling dynamic, given the two very different views of Bloomberg and Sanders. In a lower turnout gubernatorial election, these types of voters may be the key to victory in Maryland.
  • MY TAKEAWAY: All of this means, for example, to defeat Governor Larry Hogan during his re-election race, the solution might NOT be to simply find a more moderate Democrat. A better standard might be to find a candidate who is clearly NOT a party hack. In a 2018 General Election fight, a key question for Maryland voters will be "who actually stands for me?" For various reasons, I think Hogan answered this question better than Democrats did in 2014. But as the presidential race shows, only some of this message can be conveyed by substance, as opposed to style (or lack thereof). In my own case, people often say (without flattery) that I don't dress like a politician. But maybe that's exactly my point -- and I would never run for Governor, hahaha, but I myself like to vote for candidates who seem like "real" people. We often say that authenticity matters, but rarely do I see that statement followed-up with an explanation of why. This year's presidential race provides numerous opportunities to study this question, and we would be wise to pay attention in Maryland.

3) LATENT SEXISM IS ALIVE AND WELL IN PARTS OF THE ELECTORATE - If the race ends up being Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump, Clinton's lead among women is somewhere between a tie and a 9-point margin. But the also notes, "Men vote anyone but Clinton by margins of 8 to 16 percentage points."  Yikes!  I've cautioned my Democratic friends against complacency with Clinton as our nominee, because I predict the vitriol we will see against her will be similar to what Republicans have done to Obama. So we have to choose between either a socialist candidate or a polarizing candidate to serve as the punching bag for Republican craziness. That's not an endorsement of either Sanders or Clinton, but one key lesson here is that the Democratic Party establishment should NEVER attempt to scare candidates out of these primaries.
  • MY TAKEAWAY: We should embrace an organic dialogue within the party, and let these dynamics play out. It might've been useful to have a few more candidates in the race this year, and in 2018 Maryland Democrats should not attempt to artificially narrow the gubernatorial field for a chosen establishment candidate.

4) MILLENIALS ARE OUR GENERATION'S DEPRESSION-ERA VOTERS - It is not always easy to see historical trends happening when you're standing in the middle of them, but I believe we're witnessing a shift right now. The Great Depression had a lasting impact on voters who came of age during that period, and I imagine we're seeing the same from the millenial generation. This write-up on a provides a snapshot: "Among college-aged Americans, 58 percent report a positive view of socialism and 56 percent a positive view of capitalism." While this may sound like conflicting data to many people, it actually sounds awfully similar to how Northern European social democracies work. is as follows: "Social democracy is a political ideology that supports economic and social interventions to promote social justice within the framework of a capitalist economy, and a policy regime involving welfare state provisions, collective bargaining arrangements, regulation of the economy in the general interest, measures for income redistribution, and a commitment to representative democracy."
  • MY TAKEAWAY: In the future, Democrats should increasingly embrace a populist economic justice agenda. Today's college students who DON'T often vote will be tomorrow's 40-year-old's who DO often vote. The millenials are an emergent very large voting bloc, and voting habits form early and can last a long time.

5) THE RISE OF MELTING POT POLITICS - We've all been hearing how America is headed to a majority-minority future. But just as we're seeing in ‪Montgomery County‬, that doesn't mean that the nation is rehashing a 1960's black-white paradigm; rather we are witnessing the formation of a multi-racial electorate with large disparate blocs of races and ethnicities. Clinton is crushing Sanders among African-American voters, Sanders is supposedly leading among Latino voters, and . We see these types of political changes manifest earlier in diverse places like Maryland.
  • MY TAKEAWAY: Democratic aspirants won't be able to take these groups for granted in the future. In the past, party politicians seeking a promotion have been quick to throw certain groups under the bus. Here are a few examples -- Democratic support for deportations, pandering to dismantle welfare, voting for foreign wars (Iraq, ahem), cultural cues like the Sister Souljah incident, and of course racially disparate "tough on crime" policies like zero-tolerance, crack-cocaine disparities and the drug war. Staying on this path would be a grave error. Indeed, I was in the audience at the Netroots Nation conference last year in Phoenix when speeches by Martin O'Malley & Bernie Sanders were disrupted by #BlackLivesMatter protesters. I sat astonished as neither candidate addressed the issues raised by the activists, though all the Democratic candidates today are singing a different tune.

That's all I got. Fire away. 

QUINNIPIAC FEBRUARY 2016 POLL: Below you can see a clip from the latest Quinnipiac poll ():
Presidential matchups among American voters show:
  • Sanders over Trump 48 – 42 percent;
  • Sanders tops Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas 49 – 39 percent;
  • Sanders leads Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida 47 – 41 percent;
  • Sanders beats Bush 49 – 39 percent;
  • Sanders edges Kasich 45 – 41 percent.
  • Clinton with 44 percent to Trump’s 43 percent;
  • Cruz with 46 percent to Clinton’s 43 percent;
  • Rubio topping Clinton 48 – 41 percent;
  • Bush at 44 percent to Clinton’s 43 percent;
  • Kasich beating Clinton 47 – 39 percent.
If Bloomberg mounts a third party run, results are:
  • Sanders and Trump tied 38 – 38 percent, with 12 percent for Bloomberg;
  • Sanders tops Cruz 39 – 33 percent, with 14 percent for Bloomberg.
Sanders’ leads among key independent voters range from 45 – 35 percent over Kasich to 52 – 33 percent over Cruz. By comparison, Clinton’s best score among independent voters is 42 percent to Trump’s 40 percent.
Sanders’ leads among women range from 9 to 16 percentage points. Men are generally divided except in the Sanders-Bush matchup where the Democrat leads by 6 percentage points.

Clinton’s leads among women range from a tie to a 9-percentage point edge over Trump. Men vote anyone but Clinton by margins of 8 to 16 percentage points.

American voters give Sanders a 51 – 36 percent favorability. Kasich gets a 35 – 18 percent favorability with Rubio at a split 39 – 37 percent score. All other scores are negative:
  • 37 – 58 percent for Clinton;
  • 37 – 57 percent for Trump;
  • 36 – 45 percent for Cruz;
  • 21 – 26 percent for Bloomberg;
  • 37 – 48 percent for Bush.

Tuesday, October 6, 2015

POLL: MD Supports Obama, Hogan, Pot & Immigrants (1 Is Not Like The Others) // PLUS: Marylanders on Presidential Race

Below Maryland Juice provides highlights from a new Goucher Poll on the Presidential race, Governor Larry Hogan and a few policy debates. You can see the summary data below. A few quick items of interest:
  1. Slim majorities of Marylanders approve of Larry Hogan & Barack Obama's jobs, but many residents don't yet have an opinion on Hogan.
  2. Governor Hogan's issue ratings are lower, and he receives his lowest marks on education -- the most important issues facing the state and the only issue where Democrats disapprove 
  3. Marylanders support marijuana legalization, and a super-majority of residents support a path to citizenship for undocumented residents.
  4. Marylanders disapprove of the job Congress is doing by a whopping 83%.
  5. It's early in the Presidential race, but Hillary Clinton tops the polls for Maryland Democrats & Martin O'Malley is scraping the bottom in his own state

Who Would Maryland Democrats Vote for in Presidential Primary?
  • Hillary Clinton: 43%
  • Joe Biden: 23%
  • Bernie Sanders: 17%
  • Martin O'Malley: 2%

Who Do Maryland Democrats Think Will Win Nomination?
  • Hillary Clinton: 54%
  • Joe Biden: 14%
  • Bernie Sanders: 8%

Marylanders' Approval of Governor Hogan's Job as Governor:
  • Approve: 58%
  • Disapprove: 18%
  • Don't Know: 23%

Marylanders' Approval of Governor Hogan's Handling of Issues (ranked by importance):

Approve Disapprove
Public education 40 33 +7
Taxes 51 29 +22
Economic growth 52 21 +31
Job creation 42 28 +14
Crime 43 32 +11
Transportation 50 29 +21
Environment 43 27 +16

Marylanders' Approval of President Obama's Job as President:
  • Approve: 53%
  • Disapprove: 38%
  • Don't Know: 7%

Marylanders' Approval of Congress' Job:
  • Disapprove: 83%
  • Approve: 9%
  • Don't Know: 7%

Marylanders on Marijuana Legalization:
  • Support Legalization: 52%
  • Oppose Legalization: 42%

Marylanders on Who Should Decide Marijuana Policy:
  • States Should Decide: 64%
  • Federal Government Should Decide: 31%

Marylanders on Redistricting:
  • Prefer Independent Commission: 73%
  • Prefer Redistricting by Electeds: 21%

Marylanders on Starting School After Labor Day:
  • Support Starting After Labor Day: 72%
  • Oppose Starting After Labor Day: 19%

Marylanders on Undocumented Immigrants:
  • Allow Them to Stay In Jobs With Path to Citizenship: 62%
  • Make Them Leave Jobs & the USA: 20%
  • Allow Them to Stay Temporarly In Jobs Without Path to Citizenship: 13%

Saturday, April 21, 2012

JuiceBlender: Reporters on Gov. Martin O'Malley for President // Plus, O'Malley on Delaney v. Garagiola & Our First Meme!

UPDATE: An O'Malley 2016 has emerged on Facebook.

For the past few months, Maryland Juice has been tracking the careful positioning of Gov. Martin O'Malley in the 2016 White House lineup. On Tuesday we noted that CNN contributor Bill Schneider had booked Gov. O'Malley for a media talk that billed him as a "hot prospect" for 2016. The event was hosted by a centrist Democratic think tank called "The Third Way." Now it seems that media speculation about the future of Maryland's Governor is sprouting up all over the place. Below we flag a few interesting press hits about the 2016 White House race. Among the bits of juice below are recent comments from Governor O'Malley about the recent CD6 Democratic Primary, comments about transvaginal probes, and remarks about Maryland's budget battle:

Thursday, April 5, 2012

REPORT: MD Absentee Ballots Received Per District & County // P.S. MoCo School Board Has 452-Vote Margin w/ 3K Absentees

Maryland Juice was just flipping through the Maryland absentee ballot counts, so I thought I'd share them all with you. The numbers below show how many voters received absentee ballots, and how many have mailed them back. The numbers are split by Congressional District, and then by County. If you are monitoring any races that are currently too close to call, this may help you get a feel for your candidate's chances. Below, for example, the numbers give us an idea of whether the Montgomery County Board of Education results might change in the District 2 race.

SPOTLIGHT: 3,000+ ABSENTEE BALLOTS IN MOCO: One initial thing I've noted is that there appear to be well over 3,000 absentee ballots that have not yet been counted in Montgomery County. That means that the close result in the countywide Board of Education District 2 Primary *could* flip. The second and third place finishers are currently separated by a margin of 451 votes. You can think of a few scenarios why this result could change. For example, a candidate could be doing exceedingly well with absentee voters within a certain strong absentee demographic, or there could be a mundane scenario where a candidate simply didn't target absentee voters. Even still, I think a reversal is not terribly likely, given that there was a crowded field of strong challengers in the D2 race. That means for one candidate to gain 451 votes, they would have to do disproportionately well compared to their rivals. We'll know soon enough! See the pre-absentee results in the MoCo school board D2 race below. The absentees results will hopefully be out soon.

MOCO BOARD OF EDUCATION DISTRICT 2 (Results Without Absentee Counts)
  1. Fred Evans - 16,495 (24.8%) - MCEA Endorsed
  2. Rebecca Smondrowski - 14,938 (22.4%) - Washington Post Endorsed
  3. Jeanne Ellinport - 14,487 (21.7%) - MCEA Endorsed
  4. Susan Byrne - 13,828 (20.8%)
  5. Saqib Ali  - 6,878 (10.3%)

    Tuesday, April 3, 2012

    ELECTION NIGHT: Links to Unofficial Results // Plus, CD6 Election Night Parties for Delaney, Garagiola, Pooran, Etc.

    [ ]

    The night we've all been waiting for is finally here. In just a few short hours, we will know the outcomes in the handful of contested Maryland Primaries. All eyes are on the Democratic and Republican Primaries in Maryland's 6th Congressional District. Additionally, many national observers will be looking at the performance of Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul in the contest for Maryland's 37 RNC Convention Delegates. There are also a number of contested school board primaries (such as in Frederick, Montgomery and Prince George's Counties), as well as other local races going on around the state.

    SNAPSHOT: Maryland Election Day Voter Turnout is Very Low // Reports & Anecdotes From the Electoral Battle Field

    Maryland Juice has been checking in with politicos and scanning the news to get a sense of turnout for today's Presidential and Congressional Primaries. Every single source is indicating turnout today is exceptionally low across the board. Even the contested GOP Presidential Primary does not appear to be generating much interest. Two politicos who are looking at the statewide political scene had only this to say about turnout:
    • Source 1: "Just low everywhere."
    • Source 2: "As of 11 AM, Prince George's and Charles are outpacing every other jurisdiction in the State."
    One source in Montgomery County's 8th Congressional District arrived at the morning polls and texted Maryland Juice the following message: "Turnout is extremely low. Perhaps historically so." Indeed, Maryland Juice previously reported that CD8 had the worst turnout in the state during early voting.

    PATCH.COM REPORTS ON AM TURNOUT: Thanks to the small army of micro-bloggers at the Patch.com, I have been able to compile a snapshot of turnout numbers and anecdotes from around Maryland. Below see a few clips from the Patch army:

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